Gold Passes A Major Milestone – 07.30.16

  • Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside
  • The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional upside in the metal.
  • However, the above was merely a tactical, nearer-term call.
  • Strategically, it’s been even longer since we updated our longer-term framework for gold.  In fact, it’s been three months since we did that in this post.  In that May piece we suggested the metal continued to track favorably vs. our bullish expectations, but in the near-term it faced a major test having rallied nearly +25% off its Dec-15 low, a historical demarcation point whereby cyclical retracement rallies were either snuffed out with a resumption of a secular bear beginning afresh, or, the same moves continued higher, indicative of a new secular bull being underway.
  • Where do we now stand vs. that +25% demarcation point?
  • As of month-end today, gold is up over 27% from its Dec-15 lows.
  • This a major milestone – any time gold has managed a move of at least 25% off a major low, it has continued higher every single time with incremental gains ranging from 21%-412%, with the average totaling 175%.

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