Australian housing market is in a bubble, prices are rising very quickly. Jobs report is out and it shows manufacturing and construction magically surged even though all other indicators show the opposite. Goldman changes forecast the Fed will raise rates 3 times this year. Fewer corporations are buying their own stock, instead they are now selling. Insiders realize the market is at its height and they are selling off to the retailer. According to the IRS there are now 6 million fewer people who filed their tax returns. Reuters and CME Group will no longer be involved with silver auctions. Treasury urges congress to raise the debt ceiling. China admits it has a debt problem. The Air Force put out information on what words are appropriate to use. Jeff Sessions will investigate the DOJ and Obama. If Vault 7 info is real Pence will investigate. Illinois pushes gun ban without due process with new bills. South Korea’s President has been impeached. The US will not listen to China’s suggestion, there will be no talks with NK. SK preparing for cyber war with NK. US seeking to create new bases in Germany. US Africa Command commander says IS is now regrouping in Libya. US now sending 2500 troops into Kuwait to prepare for war in Syria.
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Current News – 03.10.2017
- Testifying before a parliamentary committee, the chief executives of National Australia Bank, Westpac Banking and Commonwealth Bank of Australia all said that while they are worried about elements of the housing market, prices aren’t over-inflated. Per Bloomberg:
“There are increasing risks, but I still believe the answer is no,”National Australia Bank’s Andrew Thorburn said when asked if houses in Sydney and Melbourne are overpriced.
- But sure, 100%+ rallies in home prices are completely reasonable.
“What we are seeing is a number of those foreign buyers who put the money down to buy the apartments are now having trouble settling and that is creating a bit of a glut in supply, which may or may not be what the local buyers want,” Hartzer said.
- credit extension has been tightening for apartment developers because they know that Australia will face a major oversupply of multi-unit dwellings over the next 1 – 3 years from the major ramp in permits over the past several years that will flood the market with new capacity over the next 18 months.
- Obama were mainly focused in low-paying, minimum-wage categories, such as retail, hospitality, education and, of course, food service and drinking places, in February there was a notable change with some of Trump’s favorite sectors, such as manufacturing and construction posting dramatic gains.
- manufacturing employment, which increased 28,000, and the largest increase since August 2013, that caught analysts’ attention.
- And then there was the surge in highly-paid construction payrolls, which soared by a whopping 58,000, the biggest gain since March 2007,
- There is just one question: despite the healthy gains across the board, mostly in high-paying jobs, the average hour wage growth in February disappointed, suggesting that some disconnect between good jobs, and higher wages, still remains.
- We now look for funds rate increases in March, June, and September (compared to March, September, and December previously), and have pulled forward our forecast for the start of balance sheet normalization to Q4 2017 from mid-2018 previously.
- If ‘everything is awesome’ then someone will have to explain to us why corporate executives are buying their own firms’ shares at the slowest pace in at least 29 years. According to the Washington Service, there were a total of 279 insider buyers in January, the lowest since 1988. Moreover, the number of sellers has also grown in recent months, pushing the ratio of buyers to sellers in February to its lowest since 1988 as well.
Insider selling is generating a “sell” signal to analysts at Ned Davis Research Inc., a research firm that uses technical analysis. Insider selling at firms whose shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq Stock Market and American Stock Exchange triggered its in-house bearish signal for 11 straight weeks, the longest stretch since 2014.
“The fact that we’ve gotten more selling is a sign of concern that maybe the market has gone a little too far too fast,”
- The world has gone stock crazy with retail investors POURING money into the markets like it’s 1999 all over again.
- Unfortunately for them, some truly nasty stuff is going on underneath the surface of the market.
- The average stock in the S&P 500 is down nearly 10% off its highs.
- Put another way, only a small group of stocks are holding up the entire market. Most companies are in fact already in correction mode. Indeed, the number of S&P 500 companies above their 50-day moving averages has rolled over and is collapsing hard.
- Put simply, internal momentum is quickly leaving the markets.
- This is being confirmed by corporate insiders,
- Americans are simply not filing their taxes in 2017. As the Internal Revenue Service recently reported, we’re now officially halfway through the 2017 tax filing season and nearly 6 million fewer people have filed their returns than at the same point in 2016, that’s an 8.5% decline. Meanwhile, average refunds are actually up 0.8% but that doesn’t seem to matter all that much.
- Simple Procrastination
“Customers waiting longer to file their returns is a trend we have observed for the last four years, although it’s more pronounced this year,” said Sanjay Baskaran, president of online tax preparer TaxAct.
- It’s Donald Trump’s Fault
The political rhetoric of President Donald Trump may be scaring some taxpayers. With the Republican promising to crack down on illegal immigration, undocumented immigrants may be afraid to create a paper trail with the government by claiming tax refunds.
- Delayed Refunds
In an effort to crack down on fraud, Congress passed the PATH Act 1 , which requires the IRS to increase scrutiny of certain tax credits often claimed by low-income households. As a result, the agency warned it wouldn’t issue refunds this year until Feb. 15 for the millions of returns claiming the earned income tax credit or the additional child tax credit.
- Mass Confusion
- On Friday 3 March 2017, in a surprise announcement with implications for the global silver price, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) informed its members that the current administrator and calculation agent of its recently launched LBMA Silver Price auction, Thomson Reuters and the CME Group respectively, will be pulling out of providing their services to the problematic London-based silver price benchmark within the near future. Thomson Reuters and the CME Group also issued statements on 3 March identical to that of the LBMA.
- The exit is surprising because Thomson Reuters and the CME Group only began administering / calculating the LBMA Silver Price auction two and a half years ago in August 2014,
- This dramatic “exit stage right” by Thomson Reuters and the CME Group is a far cry from their initial and persistent corporate spin of being “committed” to the silver price auction, which they claimed both at auction launch in August 2014,
- According to law firm Simmons & Simmons:
- The Regulation seeks to:
- improve governance and controls over the benchmark process, in particular to ensure that administrators avoid conflicts of interest, or at least manage them adequately
- improve the quality of input data and methodologies used by benchmark administrators
- ensure that contributors to benchmarks and the data they provide are subject to adequate controls, in particular to avoid conflicts of interest
- Perhaps CME and Thomson Reuters are worried about future reputation damage of being associated with the LBMA Silver Price due to some brewing scandal? Or perhaps the powerful bullion banks within the LBMA wanted to scupper any change that there will ever be wider participation or central clearing in any future version of the auction? s based refinery
- The defection of CME and Thomson Reuters now provides a one-off opportunity for the global silver market to insist that the current scandal ridden current auction be scrapped and taken out of the hands of the bullion bank controlled London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). It is also an opportunity to introduce a proper silver price auction in its place that is structured to allow direct participation by hundreds of silver trading entities such as the world’s silver refiners and miners,
- The US national debt will reach a statutory limit next week, forcing the Treasury to halt sales of certain securities and rely on “extraordinary measures” to continue paying government bills until Congress can raise or suspend the limit this fall.
- The 2015 law that suspended the debt ceiling will expire at midnight on March 15, at which point the US national debt will be just over $20 trillion.
- Donald Trump were quick to point out that he has harshly criticized the previous administration’s debt increases, w
- The US national debt decreased by about $70 billion since trump was inaugurated Trump administration, after increasing by $9 trillion during the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency, Treasury reported.
- Debt stood at $19,947 billion. On March 8th, more than a month later, the U.S. Debt load stood at $19,879 billion.
Trump to Seek $54 Billion Increase in Military Spending
- China’s debt is too high, with estimates ranging from 250% to 300% of GDP
back in Jan ’16 the global credit impulse was positive to the tune of 3.8% of global GDP (of which China comprised 3.5% of global GDP) it has now fallen back to -0.1% of global GDP (China’s contribution is -0.3% of global GDP).
- Should the impulse turn negative outright, the transition would have dire implications for the global growth, and reflation, cycle.
- US Attorney General Jeff Sessions is not ruling out an independent investigation of the Department of Justice under the Obama administration.
- Sessions expressed an openness to a third-party investigation of the DOJ under Attorney General Eric Holder and his successor Loretta Lynch
- The US will use the “full force of the law” to go after those behind the latest WikiLeaks release if its contents are found to be valid CIA documents, Vice-President Mike Pence has warned.
- He said that “no resource will be spared” in holding the guilty parties to account, if the so-called ‘Vault 7’ is proven to contain legitimate information into the inner-workings of the CIA.
- The alleged CIA practice of deliberately keeping software exploits unpatched for potential access is like not giving sick people penicillin, said John McAfee,
- “The CIA has confirmed that they knew of ‘zero day’ exploits years in advance of the manufacturers of the software finding out,” he said. “Basically, by not fixing those faults it puts customers of Google, Apple, Microsoft and many other American manufacturers at risk, it puts their reputation at risks, and it costs us all billions of dollars.”
- a leaked an email sent out to airmen who, apparently, were pissed off after being given a list of words to avoid using both on and off Lackland Air Force Base.
- Unbelievably, the words boy and girl were on it, citing a ‘100 percent zero tolerance’ policy by the Air Force leader who issued the email.
- 1. Boy
- 2. Girl
- 3. You People
- 4. Colonial
- 5. Blacklist
- 6. Blackmail
- 7. Blackball
- 8. Sounds Greek to me
- 9. Blondes have more fun
- 10. Too many chiefs, not enough Indians
“Please be cognizant that such conduct is 100 percent zero tolerance in or outside of the work climate,” the email read. “Let’s capitalize on our richly diverse climate, and help others seek assistance if they are struggling with compliance.”
- There are people in our government who are determined to chip away at our Second Amendment rights, and they are an insidious bunch.
- State Senator Julie Morrison has proposed a bill titled SB 1291, which would allow the government to confiscate firearms from citizens without any due process.
SB 1291 would create a “Lethal Order of Protection” whereby the firearms of Illinois residents could be confiscated if a family member or “law officer” files a petition stating the gun owner “poses an immediate and present danger of causing personal injury to himself, herself, or another by having … [a firearm] in his or her custody or control.”
- Basically if this bill passes, then a resident of Illinois could have his or her firearms confiscated if a family member alleges that the person in question is an immediate threat to himself or others. All they have to do is file a petition and report that allegation to the government.
- South Korean Constitutional Court upheld an impeachment decision against President Park Geun-hye, removing her from office on Friday over a graft scandal involving the country’s conglomerates The ruling sparked protests from hundreds of her supporters, two of whom were killed in clashes with police outside the court.
- Park becomes South Korea’s first democratically elected leader to be forced from office,
- The United States and Iraq are working on a five-year plan to keep US forces in Iraq after the defeat of Daesh terrorist group,
- US Africa Command commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser stated that the Daesh terrorists are trying to regroup its forces in Libya,
- Waldhauser told the US Senate Armed Services Committee.
- The timing is amazing, Russia working with Haftar, UN Backed Government is on its way out, the Libyan people want elections, and now IS is regrouping and US African Commander General is testifying infront of the US Senate Armed Services Committee.
- The UNSC should “force Turkey to withdraw its invasion forces from Syrian land and stop the attacks,” the Syrian Foreign Ministry said,
- Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister words from last year turned out to be prophetic: “Turkey should immediately retreat from the Syrian territories, and as long as Turkey continues occupation of the Syrian lands, the regional situation will not improve..” Nov 2016)
- The Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad gave the Iraqi government permission to strike the Islamic State (ISIS) within Syria’s borders,
- The cross-border pursuit is necessary due to militants fleeing Iraq’s besieged Mosul and heading toward Deir ez-Zor in Syria, according to the member of the parliament.
- According to the Army Times, the U.S. military recently deployed 2,500 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to Kuwait in preparation for their upcoming mission in northern Syria.
- According to the open sources, the 82nd Airborne’s 2nd BCT comprises over 4,000 soldiers forming several infantry, artillery, cavalry, and combat support battalions.
- Is this a US escalation?
- The short answer: yes; the official one: “it is not yet clear”, but the deployment comes as President Donald Trump considers a new plan to defeat IS that was submitted by the Pentagon late last month. Reports say the review may lead to an increase in the number of US troops in Syria, but not a dramatic shift in strategy.