UMich consumer confidence declines as the people of the US lose confidence. US service economy is signalling a collapse. Final GDP Q2 numbers manipulated and revised. The lumber economy does match the new construction meme. Shiller reports the housing market and the stock market are overvalued, correction on the way. One by one central banks are losing control and as this control slips away so does the economy. Obama promised cheap healthcare, but now we see premiums continually rising. 72% say America is no longer a great country. DHS working a self destruct smart phone. Warning in Malaysia, US and Australia citizens should be on alert for terrorist attacks. US is going to leave and add troops in Afghanistan. US preparing for war with Russia in the Baltic’s. Putin has complete knowledge that the U.S. uses the IS as their proxy army and is now pushing to take Assad out. Russia submits UN draft resolution to make ISIS and international terrorist threat, US will not sign on to this.
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Current News – 09.25.2015
- UMich Consumer Sentiment for September finalized at 87.2 – the lowest since October 2014. This is now the biggest 8-month drop since 2011.
- Despite the promises of all the central planners that wage growth is coming (any day, week, month, quarter now with the recovery promised originally in first half of 2012 now delayed to the 9th half ), it appears that Americans are starting to give up hope in that one most important economic component: income growth.
- US Services PMI dipped in September (after 2 months of modest bounce back). The pace of expansion slowed to three-month lows with service sector confidnce close to its lowest in three years. This latest print indicates a slowdown in overall new business growth for the second month running, which brought the pace of expansion down to its weakest since January Markit warns that “various warning lights are now flashing brighter, meaning growth may continue to weaken in coming months.”
- The Final Q2 GDP revision released the 3.7% has been revised to 3.9%,
- What is perhaps ironic in this strong number, and the reason for the kneejerk reaction higher in stocks only to fade, is that the higher the Q2 GDP, the lower the Q3 number will be – as more spending was pulled forward, it means that consensus expectations of Q3 GDP will now surely drop below 2%,
- Lumber prices are the most correlated with ISM and GDP of all industrial commodities and that is a problem…
- First, Lumber prices have collapsed to 4 year lows. The 33% Year-over-year plunge is the biggest since the financial crisis and is flashing a big red recession alarm…
Second, Lumber prices have historically led stocks and are pointing to significant downside from here…
and finally, Third, it appears lumber’s decline points to notable downside for manufacturing…
- Long-term economic growth remains slow, despite a rebound in both equities and housing. This is a clear sign that the market is overheated, warns Robert Shiller,
- “On top of that, I have survey data showing that [a high percentage of] people think the market is overpriced,” he says. “This this creates a little bit of fear that there could be a correction.
- global debt issuance, we are facing a debt super crisis, the likes of which has never existed before: $100 trillion in global bonds, with an additional $555 trillion in derivatives.
- In 2012 marked the high water mark for Central Bank intervention without political repercussions. From that point onward, all Central Bank began to lose their political capital rapidly.
- 1. In Japan, the Bank of Japan’s policies are demolishing the Middle Class. The number of Japanese living on welfare just hit a record and real earnings and household spending have been in a free fall since the middle of 2014.
- 2. In Europe, the ECB’s President Mario Draghi has admitted in parliament that he was concerned about a “deflationary death spiral” and admitted that QE was the last tool left. Half of the ECB’s Board is against his direction.
- 3. In the US, the Fed is now being targeted by Congress. Legislation has been introduced to audit the Fed AND force it to abide by the Taylor Rule. Also, the Fed appears to be losing control of the system as it failed to increase interest rates and stocks STILL collapsed.
- Eventually it will culminate in a Crash that will make 2008 look like a picnic.
- How’s that Obamacare working out for you? That’s what I thought.
- Considering that pretty much every single thing Obama promised when he was running for President turned out to be an outright lie
- “ Obama said back in 2008, “by reducing premiums by as much as $2,500 per family.”
Since 2008, average family premiums have climbed a total of $4,865.
And Obama wasn’t talking about government subsidized insurance or expanding Medicaid or anything like that. He specifically focused on employer provided health care.
For “people who already have insurance, and the employers who are providing it,” he said at one campaign event, “we will work to lower your premiums by up to $2,500 per family.”
- A national survey finds that 72 percent of Americans say their country isn’t as great as it once was
- Americans are “fed up” with politics, suspect the wealthy are getting an unfair edge, and think the country is going in the wrong direction, according to a new Bloomberg Politics poll e.
- A leaked memo shows a White House working group explored ways for law enforcement to unlock encrypted smartphones. Among the ideas were separate encryption keys or spyware embedded in automatic software updates, according to the Washington Post.
- One method was for providers to add a separate encrypted port to their devices through which law enforcement could access the data after receiving a warrant by using a set of keys that only they would have.
- A second approach was to add spyware to automatic software updates, a method already employed effectively by hackers.
- A third method described splitting up encryption keys that could be combined under court order, and a fourth solution involved a “forced backup,” which would upload data stored on an encrypted device to an unencrypted location.
- Technologists argue that such approaches would weaken the security of encryption by adding layers of complexity that could hide bugs and create new potential targets for hackers.
- The memo highlighted the government’s continued desire to have access to digital communications,
- The Department for Homeland Security (DHS) in the US has revealed that it is working with the Boeing Company to develop a so-called “brain chip” that would allow any smartphone to “self-destruct”.
- In theory, this technology will provide users with additional, “intelligent” security, so that in the event a smartphone is stolen or lost, the device will intuitively implement self-protective measures.
- The chip would be able to detect unusual activity because it will have been gathering data on its user’s behaviour, including the way they walk and talk, .
- This information will have been generated organically, through an individual’s use of features such as a camera, microphone and touchpad.
- this Sunday’s Catalonia is worth watching closely as it could very well represent the next European black swan.
- ,secession would only serve to muddy the waters further ahead of general elections in December, creating further uncertainty and adding yet another destabilizing element to an already fragile situation in the EU.
- The 27 September election in Catalonia, which accounts for ~19% of Spanish GDP – matters.
- Military officials reportedly are considering keeping thousands of American troops in Afghanistan beyond the end of next year,
- The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday that Army Gen. John Campbell, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has submitted five different recommendations for allied troop levels to the Pentagon and NATO officials in Brussels
- Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Ukraine’s credit rating from ‘CC’ to selective default ‘SD’ level, according to the agency’s website. The cut in its credit rating comes after Ukraine started restructuring debts and suspended payments on a number of liabilities that will be restructured.
- The main reason for the downgrade was that on September 23, the country failed to make a $500 million repayment,
- Sanctioned Russian airlines, Aeroflot and Transaero among them, will be banned from entering Ukraine from October 25. A government decree will also ban all Russian transit planes from flying over the country, which are carrying military equipment and soldiers.
- “The flights of the Russian airlines through the Ukrainian territory have been banned, should they contain cargos of military or dual purpose or soldiers,” Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk said Friday.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold bilateral meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande on the sidelines of Normandy Quartet talks on Ukraine October 2,
- France has agreed to sell two Mistral helicopter carriers to Egypt, which were originally ordered by Russia.
- The US is preparing for a possible conflict with Russia in the Baltic States. The Pentagon has worked out various plans and performed numerous war games in order to be able to respond to an alleged Russian aggression,
The new US defense plan is focused on so-called hybrid warfare. It uses irregular troops, targeted destabilization of the region by organizing mass protests and the use of cyber attacks on critical infrastructure.As a pretext for its military activation, the US again has used the alleged Russian involvement in Ukraine.
The US has already announced plans to deploy additional tanks and artillery in the Baltic States,
- German lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht criticized NATO decision to sent fully armed German fighter jets to patrol the airspace of the Baltic Nations.
- NATO jets patrolling the skies over the Baltic countries with full ammunition loads is shear madness, Sahra Wagenknecht,
- “This is a very dangerous military game creating the threat of war for the entire Europe,”
- The Pentagon’s most elite troops have been dispatched to nearly 70% of the world’s countries in 2015, according to a report. It says US soldiers are “practicing night raids or sometimes conducting them for real… sometimes actually gunning down enemies from afar.”
- The US special operations soldiers are carrying out missions in up to 90 nations every day, the report stated, adding that SOCOM would not “name the 135 countries in which America’s most elite forces were deployed this year, let alone disclose the nature of those operations.
- SOCOM more than doubled its personnel from about 33,000 in 2001 to nearly 70,000 at present, TomDispatch reported.
- Some 15 percent of U.S. Marines are now deployed in Hawaii, Guam and elsewhere in the Pacific as part of Washington’s “pivot to Asia” strategy to assert its dominance in the region.” Lt. Gen. John Toolan, the head of Marine Corps Forces Pacific, said “My Marines are postured… to ensure rapid response throughout the Asia-Pacific across the full range of military operations. “Future opportunities may include third-country ships,” he added, referring to the transport of U.S. Marines aboard vessels owned by other countries.
- Moscow has officially called an end to the US policy of utilizing Sunni extremists to destabilize the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
- With the pressure building, Obama is now set to meet directly with Putin next week following the Russian President’s speech to the UN General Assembly.
U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet in New York next week at a time of high tension in Europe and the Middle East, but the Kremlin and the White House disagreed on Thursday over the top priority for the talks.
The White House insisted the meeting would focus on eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed forces are fighting the Kiev government, prompting tough sanctions that have damaged Russia’s economy.
Moscow, however, said the main focus would be on Syria, where Russia has built up its military forces in recent weeks with combat aircraft, tanks and other equipment in support of President Bashar al-Assad.
- Earlier this week, Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said the Russian leader was desperate to meet Obama.
- “A couple of days ago, on September 19, we received a proposal from the [Obama] administration to consider two possible dates for a meeting between the two presidents in New York,” Ushakov told journalists.
- “The US recognizes now that Russia has profound knowledge of this region and a better assessment of the situation,”
- Russia’s defence ministry on Thursday said it will hold naval drills in the “east Mediterranean” in September and October,
- The exercises include three warships from Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, including the Saratov landing ship, the Moskva guided missile cruiser and the Smetlivy destroyer,
- The drills will involve “40 combat exercises, including rocket and artillery fire at sea and airborne targets,” the statement said.
- On Thursday, the Syrian troops established control over the hills overlooking the Eastern Ghouta region east of Damascus after eliminating US proxy army
- The United States has opposed Russia’s draft statement on Syria ahead of the UN General Assembly in New York,
- During his visit to Washington, D.C., this week, Chinese President Xi Jinping was expected to sign an historic “cyber arms agreement” with the United States, under which each would agree to adhere to U.N.-established norms of online behavior, the most important of which was not to attack the other’s infrastructure during peacetime,
- “such a deal is unlikely to actually spell out a definition of what constitutes ‘critical infrastructure.’ That lack of clarity also plagued a 2015 report from the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts on Information Security (GGE), which included a list of “norm, rules, and principles’ for state behavior in cyberspace.”
- In many ways, “critical infrastructure” remains a catch-all for everything from water treatment plants to banks to manufacturing. And potential attacks on it have preoccupied Washington since then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta first uttered “cyber Pearl Harbor.” The US as of now is not signing this document.
- Obama told reporters at a joint news conference, with Xi standing at his side. “Today I can announce that our two countries reached a common undersanding on the way forward.”