US manufacturing declines once again, the bounce is over. The central banks created bubbles and we are now on a bubble watch. Russia plans to issue yuan bonds for the very first time. Bank of England warns that if they keep printing money they will end up like Venezuela. The central banks are just signalled they are worried about cyrpto-currencies. They think if cyrpto’s continue to grow they will pose a risk the financial system. The indictment against Flynn is meaningless and a waste of time, it does not show collusion it shows he lied. North Korea says they want to be recognized as a nuclear country, if this comes to pass it is game over for the cabal in NK. Mattis says they are still working on a diplomatic solution in NK. Tulsi Gabbard says that the only option is a diplomatic solution with NK. The clock is ticking down and the cabal only has one option left, that is an event.
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Current News – 12.01.2017
- While new orders slowed, the most notable item in the PMI data was that inflation is surging…
- The brief rebound in US manufacturing after the hurricanes appears to have ended as Markit’s PMI dropped from 54.6 to 53.9 as new orders slowed amid soaring inflation. For
- once ISM Manufacturing also agreed with PMI – dropping to its lowest since July – with employment and export orders sinking.
- the percentage of respondents saying New Orders are ‘better’ dropped to 31, the lowest since November 2016.
“US manufacturers reported further solid growth in November. The rate of expansion settled slightly after October’s rebound from the hurricanes, but still leaves the sector on course for its best quarter since the opening months of 2015.
- When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower.
- Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system.
- And for the US, which controls the reserve currency of the world, sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries, represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the entire world.
- So when the Fed moved to corner this market, forcing the yields on these bonds to drop to all-time lows, it was effectively forcing ALL risk in the US financial system to adjust to an abnormal risk-profile.
- the Fed created a bubble in bonds, which in turn fueled a bubble in everything.
- Yes, everything… corporate bonds, municipal bonds, stocks, even consumer credit. Indeed, nine years into this insanity things have reach such egregious levels of excess that even tertiary debt instruments such as margin debt have reached levels greater than ever before.
- What is margin debt?
- Margin debt is money that stock investors borrow in order to buy stocks. It is direct leverage. And it just hit a new record… or $561 billion.
- To put this number into perspective, it is:
- Equal to the entire economy of Asian powerhouse Taiwan.
- Nearly greater than the amount of margin debt borrowed at the peak of the last bubble in 2007 50%.
- DOUBLE the amount of margin debt borrowed at the peak of the Tech Bubble.
- Now, no one in their right mind would argue that late 2000 or late 2007 were periods of fiscal restraint.
- Well, today investors are borrowing hundreds of billions or dollars MORE to invest in the stock market than they were at those times.
- Russia hired Bank of China Ltd., Gazprombank and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. to arrange investor meetings for the sale of 6 billion yuan ($907 million) in five-year notes, according to people familiar with the plans. The issuance is slated for the end of this year or beginning of 2018,
- The sale has been under discussion since U.S. and European sanctions in 2014 over the takeover of Crimea blocked many state-owned Russian companies’ access to Western capital markets.
- “It would be wise of Russia to tap the yuan market now,”
- The Yuan-denominated bonds, known as dim-sum bonds, would be listed on the Moscow Exchange and available for investors to purchase via the Moscow branch of ICBC.
- A senior Bank official warned the UK’s economy would be unlikely to survive borrowing any more cash
- THE Government borrowing any more money could cause the UK’s economy to collapse in the same way as Venezuela’s, a senior Bank of England official has warned.
- Richard Sharp, a member of the Bank’s Bank’s Financial Stability Committee, claimed an extra £1trillion had already been borrowed since the 2008 financial crisis.
- Mr Sharp claimed that taking any more cash could see UK ending up like Venezuela, which has been thrown into turmoil by its economic crisis, The Times reported.
- At the moment there are about 3,000 different crypto currencies and there is no common understanding of how to regulate their turnover
- The participants in the 4th BRICS Legal Forum (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) have agreed to form a working group that will deal with the legal regulation of crypto currencies,
- “We are creating an international working group that will develop common approaches to the legal regulation of the digital economy in the BRICS countries,” Gruzdev said.
- He noted that at the moment there are about 3,000 different crypto currencies and there is no common understanding of how to regulate their turnover. The status of exchanges, where these crypto-currencies are sold and bought, is yet to be defined, he added.
- “The question about taxation emerges, it is necessary to define what a crypto currency is. Is it a service, a means of payment, a commodity? Everybody wants to use it, but the legal regime is not clear,” he said
- Update: Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding at the lows of the day, but following ECB comments earlier (see below), The Fed’s vice chariman of supervision, Randy Quarles, warns that digital currencies like bitcoin pose “serious financial stability issues” as they grow…
While these digital currencies may not pose major concerns at their current levels of use, more serious financial stability issues may result if they achieve wide-scale usage.
- Perhaps most ironic is Quarles’ description of the ‘drawbacks’ of cryptocurrencies…
But from the standpoint of analysis, the “currency” or asset at the center of some of these systems is not backed by other secure assets, has no intrinsic value, is not the liability of a regulated banking institution, and in leading cases, is not the liability of any institution at all. Indeed, how to treat and define this new asset is complicated.
- So because it’s not backed by ‘other secure assets’ – analysing its value is complicated… like the dollar.
- * * *
- It’s a bloodbath in cryptocurrency markets this morning...
- Flynn’s guilty plea has come with an apparent agreement to cooperate with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. Inevitably this is giving rise to speculation that Flynn has “flipped”. Is that speculation warranted?
- Firstly, it needs to be said that the indictment against Flynn and his guilty plea have absolutely no bearing on the allegations of illegal collusion during the 2016 Presidential election between the Trump campaign and the Russians which are at the centre of the Russiagate scandal.
- Instead they concern what is purely a ‘process crime’: that Flynn falsely denied to the FBI that he had asked Russian ambassador Kislyak for Russia to react with restraint to the sanctions imposed on Russia in December 2016 by Barack Obama, and – much more interestingly – that he also falsely denied having asking Kislyak for Russia’s help to block or delay a vote on a Resolution in the UN Security Council.
- The indictment does not say what this resolution was. However the timing strongly suggests that it was Resolution 2334 passed on 23rd December 2016, which declared Israeli settlement activity unlawful, declared all Israeli settlements built since the 1967 Six Day War illegal, and which specifically ruled out recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Note that the indictment refers to a conversation between Flynn and Kislyak on 22nd December 2016, the day before the vote in the UN Security Council on Resolution 2334 took place.
- The “collusion” here is between the Israeli government and the Trump campaign. The “influence” is two part. A successful Israeli attempt to influence the incoming Trump administration and an unsuccessful attempt by Trump people to influence the Russian UNSC vote. The issue has absolutely zero to do with the U.S. election.
- Throughout his election campaign Trump had loudly argued for better relations with Russia. He said it would be easier to solve global problems if the U.S. and Russia cooperate.
- The Obama administration had a generally hostile attitude towards Russia. It walked the relations towards a new cold war. Clinton’s loss of the election which she blamed, without evidence, on Russia amplified his moves. According to the book ‘Shattered’, which describes the Clinton campaign, the decision to blame Russia for her loss was made a day after Trump’s victory:
That strategy had been set within twenty-four hours of her concession speech. Mook and Podesta assembled her communications team at the Brooklyn headquarters to engineer the case that the election wasn’t entirely on the up-and-up. For a couple of hours, with Shake Shack containers littering the room, they went over the script they would pitch to the press and the public. Already, Russian hacking was the centerpiece of the argument.
- At the end of 2016 Obama sanctioned Russian officials over allegedly influencing the U.S. campaign. No evidence was ever presented that such “influencing” was attempted or happened. Obama just willfully tried to worsen the relations with Russia.
- But how this is supposed to show that something nefarious was going on is not discernible. How the issues Flynn lied about (for whatever stupid reason) are supposed to prove “Russian influence” on the election or “collusion” with Trump during the election campaign is beyond me.
- On Friday, Tillerson doubled down on those denials, telling a group of reporters that the NYT’s story was “laughable.”
- North Korea is ready to sit at the negotiating table for peace talks if it is recognized as a nuclear power, the Russian delegation to Pyongyang said, adding that the North claims that it was forced to be aggressive and will not stop its nuclear program.
- A war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula is one of the scenarios considered by the Russian military, so it would not be blindsided in case it actually happens, the head of Russia’s Security Council said, advocating a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
- US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that he still has confidence in diplomatic efforts on North Korea. “We will continue to work diplomatically, we will continue to work through the UN, the UN Security Council, and we will be unrelenting in that,” Mattis said
- Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, advocated diplomacy, but with conditions.“The only viable option that I see before us today is a diplomatic one, and that can only be pursued if two things happen,” Gabbard said on CNN on Thursday.“One is that we negotiate directly with North Korea and Kim Jong Un,” she said, adding, “and secondly, in order for those negotiations to be successful, we have to understand why Kim Jong Un is holding on so tightly to those nuclear weapons because he sees them as his only deterrent from the U.S. coming in and trying to topple his regime.”