Subprime auto market has run its course, the traffic to the dealerships is now drying up. Homeowners are tapping their equity in their home refis, we are now seeing the same pattern as we saw back in 2008. The first quarter of this year was a disaster, the US had to borrow an extreme amount just to make the economy look half decent. Wyoming is in the process of passing a law that will allow gold to be counted as money, the same goes for cryptocurrency. There is now a bill in government that the dollar should be pegged to gold. Facebook and other social media giants out of control, regulation is needed and they might be broken up. London murder rate has now overtaken NYC. There is a huge number of illegals that are headed towards the US, Trump is trying to block their entry into the US. Trump wants to meet with Putin at the White House. US and South Korea start drills, NK has not responded and has not commented on the drills. The deep state has deployed more paid mercenaries to Syria, Trump calls for a complete withdrawal from Syria. The corporate media goes crazy over the withdrawal of US troops from Syria. The deep state will now counter everything the alternative media reports, truth are lies, lies are truth. They are resorting to calling everything a conspiracy theory. In the past the corporate media never responded to the alternative media now they are countering with explanations.
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Current News – 04.02.2018
- It was less than a month ago when we showed a series of “10 charts revealing an auto bubble on the brink“, and which laid out several very troubling trends, including i) the average new vehicle loan hit a record high $31,099; ii) the average loan for a used auto climbed to a record high $19,589…
- … iii) the average monthly payment for a new and used vehicle hitting an all-time high of $515...
- … iv) the average auto loan hit a duration of 69 months, while the average used vehicle loan has a term of just over 64 months, both rising to new record highs for yet another quarter.
- … v) the average price paid for a new vehicle also hitting an all-time high of $35,176, according to Edmunds.com, almost entirely as a result of a massive expansion in consumer credit and record amounts of auto loans.
- cheap credit leads to easy lending conditions, and record prices as everyone floods into the market with lenders hardly discriminating who they give money to.
- that traditional banks and finance companies are starting to aggressively slash their share of new auto originations while OEM captives are being forced to pick up the slack in an effort to keep their ponzi schemes going just a little longer.
- “Subrprime new-car buyers suddenly go missing from US showrooms.“
- Just as we expected, between record prices (courtesy of what until recently was easy, cheap debt), record loan terms, and rising rates, shoppers with shaky credit and tight budgets have suddenly been squeezed out of the market. In fact in the first two months of this year, sales were flat among the highest-rated borrowers, while deliveries to those with subprime scores slumped 9 percent, according to J.D. Power.
- as interest rates rise, it’s going to affect” those customers first, said Dan Mohnke, senior vice president of U.S. sales for Nissan Motor Co. “That’s the part of the market that’s really coming down.’’
- Subprime loans now make up just 55% of its portfolio, down from 75% five years ago, said David Goff, vice president of marketin
- And now it’s payback time, as the long-overdue disappearance of a major source of auto demand -the US subprime buyer – means the long-overdue market clearing “price correction” (one can use a harsher term here as well) is imminent.
- * * *
- the mortgage refis have cratered to levels not seen since December ’08 amid a spike in interest (and mortgage) rates. Simply put, the population of borrowers who both qualify for a refi and want one given the higher rates has collapsed.
- Consequently, the remaining homeowners seeking to refinance are overwhelmingly “cashing out” also known as taking out a new mortgage that’s bigger than the remaining balance on the existing one and using the extra money to maintain their lifestyle.
- To better quantify the drop-off in refis, Black Knight reports the recent spike in interest rates cut the population of borrowers with an interest rate incentive to refinance by nearly 40 percent in 40 days
- the U.S. savings rate is at crisis lows, credit card debt has gone “completely vertical,” and 61% of Americans don’t have enough in savings to cover a $1,000 emergency.
- rom January 1, 2018 through March 28, 2018 (Q1), real GDP likely grew $110 billion (a 2.5% rise on an annualized basis). However, the fly in the ointment…according to the Treasury, from Jan 1, 2018 through March 28, 2018 (Q1), federal debt rose by an astounding $621 billion dollars (a 13.1% increase on an annualized basis). The chart below shows the quarterly change in federal debt versus the quarterly change in real GDP since 2000. Q1 2018 was the second largest quarterly growth in federal debt, only surpassed by the massive free spending of Q4, 2008.
- Or, if we just subtract the quarterly growth in federal debt from the growth in real GDP…chart below.
- Unfortunately, Q1 2018 is one of the worst quarters on record with the growth in federal debt doing laps around the “growth” in Gross Domestic Product (which of course counts all the federal debt fueled activity?!?). Incurring over $621 billion in new debt (to be serviced ad infinitum) to produce just over a $100 billion in new economic activity is something only government could achieve.
- However, it gets downright miserable if you add in the massive $500 to $750 billion quarterly growth of unfunded liabilities alongside the growth in federal debt. Together, the UL’s and federal debt are rising $3 to $4 trillion annually while GDP is rising around a half trillion. The tax cuts and fast rising costs of social programs will continue to see deficits rise far faster than economic activity or resultant tax revenue.
- China unveiled new retaliatory duties on US food imports including pork, nuts, wine and fruits of between 15% and 25% in response to Trump administration’s Section 232 tariffs (not to be confused with the $60BN in Section 301 tariffs unveiled subsequently) on steel and aluminum imports.
- China’s Customs Tariffs Commission confirmed reports from March 23, stating that additional duties on 128 kinds of products of US origin would be introduced from Monday “in order to safeguard China’s interests and balance the losses caused by the United States additional tariffs.”
- Earlier this month, the Wyoming legislature became the latest state to modify their state laws to challenge the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money.
Titled the Wyoming Legal Tender Act, the new law defines gold and silver specie as “legal tender,” meaning it will be recognized as a medium of exchange for the payment of debts and taxes in the state. Practically speaking, gold and silver specie will be treated as money, putting it on par with Federal Reserve notes in Wyoming.
The law defines specie as coins having gold or silver content, or refined bullion, coined, stamped or imprinted with its weight and purity.
HB103 also prohibits the state or local governments from levying any property, sales of capital gains taxes on gold or silver specie. Wyoming does not have an income tax. However, it does have a sales tax and it assesses this tax against precious metals bullion
The Senate passed HB103 with some technical amendments by a 25-5 vote. The House previously passed HB103 by a 44-14 vote. Last Wednesday, the bill became law without Gov. Matt Mead’s signature. It will go into effect July 1, 2018.
- At the same time, Wyoming became the first state in the nation to explicitly recognize cryptocurrency as a new asset class.
To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.
Mr. Mooney of West Virginia introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Financial Services
To define the dollar as a fixed weight of gold.
Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,
Congress finds the following:
(1) The United States dollar has lost 30 percent of its purchasing power since 2000, and 96 percent of its purchasing power since the end of the gold standard in 1913.
(2) Under the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation objective, the dollar loses half of its purchasing power every generation, or 35 years.
(3) American families need long-term price stability to meet their household spending needs, save money, and plan for retirement.
(4) The Federal Reserve policy of long-term inflation has made American manufacturing uncompetitive, raising the cost of United States manufactured goods by more than 40 percent since 2000, compared to less than 20 percent in Germany and France.
(5) Between 2000 and 2010, United States manufacturing employment shrunk by one-third after holding steady for 30 years at nearly 20,000,000 jobs.
(6) The American economy needs a stable dollar, fixed exchange rates, and money supply controlled by the market not the government.
(7) The gold standard puts control of the money supply with the market instead of the Federal Reserve.
(8) The gold standard means legal tender defined by and convertible into a certain quantity of gold.
(9) Under the gold standard through 1913 the United States economy grew at an annual average of four percent, one-third larger than the growth rate since then and twice the level since 2000.
(10) The international gold exchange standard from 1914 to 1971 did not provide for a United States dollar convertible into gold, and therefore helped cause the Great Depression and stagflation.
(11) The Federal Reserve’s trickle down policy of expanding the money supply with no demand for it has enriched the owners of financial assets but endangered the jobs, wages, and savings of blue collar workers.
(12) Restoring American middle-class prosperity requires change in monetary policy authorized to Congress in Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 of the Constitution.
- French President Emmanuel Macron has suggested internet giants Facebook and Google could be forced to pay for the “disruption” they cause in society and submit to French or European privacy regulations.
- In an interview with Wired magazine, the French leader warned the tech firms are becoming too big to be governed and could face being dismantled.
- London has surpassed New York City’s murder rate for the second month in a row, due mostly to a spike in knife crime and shootings which left 15 Londoners dead in February – nine of whom were age 30 or younger, and 22 dead in March vs. New York City’s 21, according to the Sunday Times.
- While both cities have around 8.5 million people, NYC’s murder rate has dropped by around 87% since the 1990’s, while London’s has grown approximately 40% in just three years – not including deaths from terrorist attacks. Experts have credited the NYPD’s zero-tolerance policing model driving down the homicide rate in NYC from around 2,000 deaths in 1990 to 230 last year.
- London, however, is experiencing a spike in violent crime.
- That said, London remains substantially safer overall in comparison to New York City – with fewer than half of the homicides NYC experienced in 2017. That said, according to the Telegraph, a person is nearly six times more likely to be burgled in London than in New York City, and 1.5 times as likely to fall victim to a robbery.
- Trump – said that US border agents aren’t allowed to do their jobs properly because of “laws” like “catch and release”. And with more “dangerous caravans coming” to the US border, “we must go to Nuclear Option to pass tough laws NOW. NO MORE DACA DEAL!”
- over 1,500 Central Americans are on a crusade across Mexico in the hopes of being granted asylum at the U.S. border.
- Setting out six days ago and marching under the slogan “Migrantes en la lucha” (“Migrants in the Fight”) during holy week, the caravan comprised mostly of Hondurans was organized roughly a month ago by the mysterious group Pueblo Sin Fronteras (People Without Borders).
- Trump also accused Mexico of doing “nothing” to stop people from flowing in through the Southern border, saying “they must stop the big drug and people flows” or he will “end their cash cow, NAFTA.”
- What Trump is referring to is that, as noted yesterday, despite a majority of the Honduran migrants being in Mexico illegally, the caravan has not been stopped on its journey by local authorities, and people from Mexican towns along the way have been helping the refugees.
- the president has invited Putin to a summit at the White House.
- Trump left things vague when he first raised the possibility of a formal meeting between the two leaders – a declaration that outraged Trump’s critics. Such a meeting will only serve to embarrass and infuriate Special Counsel Robert Mueller, particularly now that the “Russia” branch of his Russia probe has seemingly resulted in a dead end.
- Germany and the US have indicated they would like to resume relations with Russia after recent diplomatic falling out.
- Germany relies on Russia for roughly a third of the gas it uses
- Russia’s Ambassador to the UK, Alexander Yakovenko, says that London’s reluctance to share information on the March 4 poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal has led Moscow to suggest that London authorities actually perpetrated the crime.
- “We have very serious suspicion that this provocation was done by British intelligence,
“There has never been a ‘Novichok’ research project conducted in Russia,” Shulgin told the Rossia-1 television station, as the The Moscow Times first reported. “But in the West, some countries carried out such research, which they called ‘Novichok,’ for some reason.”
- The US and South Korea on Sunday kicked off their annual joint military exercises which had been postponed until after the Winter Olympics, South Korean Defense Ministry sources said. About 11,500 U.S. and 300,000 South Korean soldiers will take part in the drill that was originally set for March. The start of the drills comes around a week after Kim made a surprise visit to Beijing where he held his first summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. the joint drills this year will be shorter than originally planned, and that a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier will not take part.The annual joint exercises, which have taken place since 1997, ran for two months in 2017 but have been reduced to just one month this year, according to Yonhap.
- The US has deployed 300 additional soldiers in the Syrian city of Manbij, the Turkish state-run news agency Anadolu Agency reported on April 1. translation, paid mercenaries brought into the are to defend the kurd region
- Trump confirmed plans to withdraw American forces – some 2000+ troops and personnel – from Syria. On Friday the president told senior White House aides that US forces will be exiting Syria
- the corporate media reacted in disbelief and horror – with charges of “chaos” at the Trump White House over Syria policy, and claims that “ISIS will come back” if America leaves. Nevermind the fact that Trump himself while on the campaign trail in 2016 stated in public speeches and in a tweet (and linking to a declassified intelligence memo) that US support to jihadists in Syria under President Obama is precisely what fueled the rise of ISIS in the first place.
- CNN, for example, painted a picture of mass revolt among the ranks of military officers and career State Department officials, asserting that, “Any decision by Trump to pull out of Syria would also go against the current military assessment, a fact that left some national security officials concerned about the impact of a withdrawal, another senior administration official told CNN.”
- No, there’s no “chaos” when it comes to Syria policy at the White House – Trump is doing exactly what he pledged to do while previously on the campaign trail, and he’s further continuing what he started when he nixed the CIA’s regime change program last summer.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reaffirmed on Monday that the US military presence in Syria is illegal and contrary to the UN Charter.
6,034 new from 3/1/18 to 3/31/18 24,544 new sealed indictments entered from 10/30/17 thru 3/31/18 Link to back-up files: https://tinyurl.com/yd5vn9ou How many are normal? 1,077 per 2009 report: https://tinyurl.com/y97q9w4g
Bell on JFK yacht says the following