UK retailers suffer the sharpest decline in sales, this is the biggest drop in 22 years. America is in debt and it has now surpassed the 2008 crisis. Wholesale sales inventories disappoint. These indicators show that the economy is in really bad shape. Growth rate is now slowing, people are using credit and saving their cash just in case, the yield curve is flattening as the interest rates rise. Trump calling out fake news once again.Pompeo is now returning from NK with the 3 prisoners. The peace deal is still a go. The new Armenian Prime Minister wants relations with Turkey and Russia. Obama and John Kerry are in panic mode after the Trump withdraws from Iran deal. Israel fires missiles into Syria saying they destroyed an Iranian base, Syria says the missile were destroyed. Q drops some more intel on Iran and how the deep state is panicking.
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Current News – 05.09.2018
- British Retail Consortium’s latest health check shows 3.1% fall, the biggest dip since its survey launched in 1995
- Britain’s retailers suffered the sharpest drop in business in more than two decades
- Total consumer credit rose 5.1% in the first quarter, compared to a year earlier, or by $184 billion, to $3.824 trillion (not seasonally adjusted), according to the Federal Reserve. This includes credit-card debt, auto loans, and student loans, but not mortgage-related debt. That 5.1% year-over-year increase isn’t setting any records – in 2011, year-over-year increases ran over 11%. American are by piling on debt faster than the overall economy is growing.
- after the Financial Crisis – when consumers deleveraged mostly by defaulting on those debts – didn’t last long. Over the 10 years since Q1 2008, consumer debt has now surged 47%. Over the same period, the consumer price index has increased 16.9%:
- Q4 credit card balances of $1.03 trillion had been an all-time record, finally beating the record of Q4 2008. And Q1 2018, at $977 billion, set a record for any first quarter, beating Q1 2008 by a smidgen ($973 billion). So Americans did their job piling on high-profit debt.
- Wholesale Sales and Inventories disappointed in March, both slowing to +0.3% MoM.
- Wholesales Sales slowed from an upwardly revised +1.1% MoM in Feb to +0.3% MoM in March.
- Sales were weak across the board MoM..
- The consensus is that the economy’s doing great – and will continue to do well.
- Everything seems fine – right?
- Well, not exactly.
- Here are three important indicators that will throw ice on the hot economy narrative the mainstream media is pushing…
- Right now, the yield curve is dangerously close to flattening – then soon after will invert.
- Looking at the 2 n’ 10 Rule – the spread between the 2-year Treasury and the 10-year Bond – we see the spread is at the lowest it’s been since The Great Recession of 2008.
- 43 basis points. . . That’s it.
- To put this in perspective, if the Fed hikes just two more times (which is 50 basis points) and the 10-year keeps sticking below 3%, then the yield curve will invert.
- This is important because yield curve inversion – when the spread turns negative – has preceded the last seven straight recessions.
- If we only look at more modern times – say the last 30 years – we can see the spread collapse negative before a recession strikes.
- This 2 n’ 10 Rule is still one of the most important indicators we can use to forecast recessions. And it’s saying that the U.S. economy is more fragile than many like to admit.
- There is also the cash hoarding problem going on – and that’s a bad signal of economic health.
- when things are uncertain and become difficult – people save their money. They will put off dining out and buying things they wanted and instead keep money in their bank account for a ‘rainy day’.
- Today, Americans are saving at the highest levels since the 1991 recession. They are skittish about the future.
“The average checking account customer has more than $3,700 stashed away. The median amount in checking accounts since 1991 is $2,263… Anything lower than this signifies the economy is doing well… Anything above this indicates the economy is not doing well.”
- This problem coincides with soaring credit card debt. And what that means is Americans would rather go into debt and finance their consumption while paying some interest instead of spending all their money upfront.
- Finally, and most importantly, another situation signaling trouble ahead is a little-followed indicator – but is eerily accurate. . .
- The South-Korean Export Growth (SKEG) Indicator…
- Many wouldn’t have guessed that South Korean exports are a great leading indicator of global corporate earnings (EPS).
- But historically – it is.
- And right now, the SKEG indicator just turned negative.
- That means so will global corporate earnings.
- Just look at the 25-year correlation between the two. . .
- If history is any indicator – there is a high chance of big problems ahead. . .
- Central banks think the US and global economies are about to break from the post-recession doldrums. They believe their aggressive monetary policies – along with tax cuts and other factors – are finally bearing fruit.
- As a result, the Fed is now tightening policy to prevent this inevitable growth sparking too much inflation.
- Actually what is happening is that Economic Growth Is Slowing Down
Source: Economic Cycles Research Institute
This is growth during times when the economy is not in recession, which should be considerably higher than the full-cycle averages. It has been falling steadily since the 1970s and is now below 2%.
Source: Economic Cycles Research Institute
GDP Growth Stalled in the Largest Economies
Finally, and most ominously, Lakshman shows this chart of quarterly GDP growth in the three largest developed market economies.
Source: Economic Cycles Research Institute
what we are seeing is a synchronized downturn.
If a recession is coming, GDP growth will decline from its present level to 0% or below. That process will likely unfold over a few quarters—and may already be beginning.
When credit growth drops below 2%, a recession almost always follows. bank credit growth is down to 0.6% since the beginning of the year. That is ugly.
- Having blasted NBC’s ‘fake news’ over the weekend, and reflecting on CNN’s ‘fake news’ (about Trump not withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal) yesterday…
- In a tweet this morning, the president suggested taking away news networks’ press credentials over “negative” coverage.
- “The Fake News is working overtime. Just reported that, despite the tremendous success we are having with the economy & all things else, 91% of the Network News about me is negative (Fake),” Trump wrote on Twitter.
- “Why do we work so hard in working with the media when it is corrupt? Take away credentials?”
- This is not the first time Trump has threatened such an action.Trump once threatened to remove The Washington Post’s press credentials over “dishonest reporting.”
- After arriving in Pyongyang early Tuesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has successfully negotiated the release of three US citizens being held in NK and is now on his way back to Washington with the hostages in tow.
- , Trump revealed that Pompeo and his “guests” will be landing at Andrews Air Force Base at 2 am Thursday, adding that the president will be “there to greet them.”
- Trump hailed Pompeo’s second visit to the North in little over a month as a success, saying the hostages “seem to be in good health” and adding that a “date & place” for the historic US-North Korea have now been set following a “good meeting” with Kim Jong Un.
- Pompeo said earlier that the North’s release of the three US citizens would be a “great gesture,” noting the US has been asking for their freedom for 17 months.
Armenia is ready to begin diplomatic relations with Turkey without preliminary conditions, but expects that Ankara will not put forward similar conditions,
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and opposition leader who was elected Armenia’s new prime minister spoke on the phone on Tuesday and agreed to further strengthen bilateral ties, the Kremlin said in a statement.
- Former United States President Barack Obama criticised the decision made on Tuesday by President Donald Trump to pull the United States out of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, calling the move a “serious mistake”.
- “I believe that the decision to put the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] at risk without any Iranian violation of the deal is a serious mistake,” Obama said in a statement soon after Trump announced his decision to withdraw from the agreement.
- “Turns our back on America’s closest allies”
- Trump announces U.S. withdrawal from ‘defective’ Iran deal
- The JCPOA strictly limits Iran’s capabilities to produce nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions.
- Mr. Obama added that, according to US intelligence agencies, Iran “is meeting its responsibilities under the deal” and that pulling the US out of the agreement could undermine it and “trigger an arms race.”
- And to top that, curbs too to follow
- Netanyahu’s report required us to believe that the Iranians were storing their most sensitive national security (paper) documents and compact discs in an unguarded desert hut, which the crack Israeli team of intelligence operatives were able to discover and remove by the truckload right under the noses of what they claim is among the most totalitarian “regimes” on earth.
- Trump’s claim that Iran is the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism… terrorist that the deep state supports (US) al-qaeda, ISIS, al nusra, al shabab, moderate rebels, syrian democratic forces.
- “Iran remains the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, and provides assistance to Hezbollah, Hamas, the Taliban, al-Qaida, and other terrorist networks,”
- The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog says Iran is honoring its commitments under the nuclear agreement it reached with world powers in 2015 a day after US President Donald Trump pulled Washington out of the landmark deal in defiance of international warnings.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issued a statement on Wednesday, reiterating that Iran is in full compliance with the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a document that came out of years of negotiations between Iran on one the side and six world powers, namely the US, Russia, China, Germany, France, Britain, on the other, in July 2015.
- Germany, Britain and France as well as the European Union have announced that they would remain in the agreement, insisting that the JCPOA is functioning properly.
- The IAEA statement went on to say that it will continue to monitor Iran’s commitment to the deal despite US withdrawal from the agreement, which has been endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231.
- the massed missile strikes assumed to have been launched by Israel caused extensive damage to local infrastructure in the southern outskirts of Damascus and killed at least two people, but Syrian air defenses managed to intercept two of them, according to state media.
- The footage appears to show the flaming wreckage of missile parts as they fall out of the sky following a big explosion.
- A medical source told SANA that at least two people, a local man and his wife, were killed in an explosion caused by one of the two interceptions.
Today, EVIL lost control / leverage of Iran.Today, POTUS took control of Iran.Today, w/ pending sanctions and military action(s), POTUS will gain more ammunition / intel against THEM.Suicide watch.The deal kept Iran quiet.The goal was to keep POTUS in until impeachment / term end.Bigger than people can imagine. Treason is 1/10th.Ask yourself, why are they panicking?Ask yourself, why is UK, France, and Germany so involved?Trips to the WH?Shinzo Abe April 17, 2018Macron April 23, 2018Merkel April 27, 2018What are they hiding?Why is HRC in NZ? Is NZ part of 5 Eyes?The Five Eyes, often abbreviated as FVEY, is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States.Why is that relevant?Drop 1286 The Brits – raw intel / dossier / 5 eyes. They have all the evidenceNunes “There was no official 5 eyes intelligence on any collusion”Suicide watch.