More Bear Market Indicators Were Just Triggered, Red Alert – Episode 1582

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More Bear Market Indicators Were Just Triggered, Red Alert
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IMF is now urges central banks to compete with cryptocurrencies, central banks know there system is obsolete and they are worried.Russia released a report where they say crypto market is to small to have any impact on the global economy. It is so bad in the UK the banks want parents to co-sign the housing loans with their children.  Youth unemployment is very high in the European countries. US added jobs but the labor force participation rate is at its highest levels. Something just doesn’t make sense.Deutsche bank has been downgraded and BoA bear market indicators have just been triggered. The entire Russian collusion investigation has cost tax payers 17 millions dollars. Comey is now throwing McCabe under the bus and it looks like criminal charges are headed his way. FBI releases document that Hillary was shopping around the Benghazi story. Google cancels its AI contract with the US government, employees signed a petition against it. Trump accepts letter from NK, the summit is back on. US vetoes the draft resolution in the UN to investigate what is going on in Palestine. Syria wants the US to hand over al-Tanf, Syria is getting ready to push a major offensive.

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Current News – 06.02.2018

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IMF Official Urges Central Banks to Compete with Cryptocurrencies

  • A high-ranking official at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is urging central banks to developer “better” fiat currencies in order to maintain their leadership pace over cryptocurrency.
  •  IMF deputy director Dong He makes the case that “crypto assets may one day reduce demand for central bank money” and that government institutions must do more to not let that happen. In other words, to “forestall the competitive pressure crypto assets may exert on fiat currencies,” central banks need to adopt some of the core concepts driving digital assets.

  • “Central banks must maintain the public’s trust in fiat currencies and stay in the game in a digital, sharing, and decentralized service economy,” he said.
  • The Washington-based institution is carefully evaluating cryptocurrencies, though it has not adopted a formal position on the matter. However, it has urged governments to utilize technology to offset the risks posed by digital currencies (or as IMF chief Christine Lagarde says, “fight fire with fire”).


  • The Central Bank of Russia released a report May 30, stating that crypto assets do not currently threaten global financial stability as the global volume of crypto transactions is very low.
  • The paper states that crypto assets could constitute a risk to financial stability in the case of further market growth, large-scale involvement of retail and institutional investors, banks, and other market players
  • Earlier this month, the Russian State Duma approved the first reading of new legislation to regulate the crypto industry. The laws define cryptocurrencies and tokens as property, and lay out specifications for interacting with crypto and blockchain-related technologies.


“Bank of Mum & Dad,” Huge Prop under UK Housing Bubble, is Running Out of Liquidity

  •   the UK posted the worst GDP figures in five years on weak business investment and household spending — the country’s all-important housing market is beginning to show signs of strain. In April house sales were down 9.4% on the previous year. In the UK’s most valuable market, London, house prices had their worst month since 2009, slipping 0.7%, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
  • As credit demand slips, some banks have decided to bring back a financial relic that should never have seen the light of day in the first place: the 100% mortgage. Both Barclays Bank and the recently privatized Post Office have recently unveiled 100% mortgage deals.
  • Mortgages for 100% (or above) of the purchase price not only help fuel high-octane housing bubbles, they also make them a lot riskier when home priced decline, and when more and more borrowers end up with negative equity – where someone’s home is worth less than their debt. That, in turn, significantly raises the likelihood of borrowers defaulting on their loans. And that’s why these 100% mortgages are risky for banks.
  • Today’s new breed of 100% mortgages has a twist in its tail: to provide the banks extra security, they are insisting on family members acting as guarantors for parts of the loans. In other words, if a borrower falls behind on repayments, a parent’s home can also be put at risk.
  • This kind of deal is becoming increasingly common in the UK,
  • So widespread is this phenomenon that in 2017 the so-called “Bank of Mum and Dad” became the ninth biggest mortgage lender in the UK shelling out some £6.5 billion in loans. Parents helped provide deposits for more than 298,000 mortgages last year — the equivalent of 26% of all transactions.
  • More than one in four transactions in the UK’s property market this year will depend on the Bank of Mum and Dad’s financial support, according to Legal & General.


  • Youth unemployment rates remain out of control in eleven EU nations, according to data just published by the bloc’s statistical office. Overall, unemployment is falling in the European Union but the quality of the jobs being created is raising concern.


  •   : in May the number of full-time jobs rose from 127.753 million to 128.657 million, a 904K increase in one month, offset by a 625 plunge in low-quality, part-time jobs.
    • Putting this surge in full-time jobs in context, it was the biggest monthly increase this century, and also on record if one excludes a few data revision prints recorded in the 1990s.



  •   the unemployment rate tumbled once more, sliding to a new 18 year low of 3.8%, even as the participation rate declined once again, as a result of a stagnant labor force,

  •   in May, the number of people not in the labor force increased by another 170K, rising to 95.915 million, a new all time high.

  • Adding to this the 6.1 million currently unemployed Americans, there are 102 million Americans who are either unemployed or out of the labor force 



  • You need only go back a little less than two years for an example. In later 2016, Deutsche Bank was a huge problem everyone was discussing if only because they couldn’t avoid it. Despite “reflation” then gripping much of the world, the German institution stood out for all the wrong reasons.
  • Those were easily dismissed as nothing other than an impending fine for housing bubble era wrongdoing. The US Department of Justice was going to slam the bank with an enormous penalty and its potential size was supposedly the reason investors were getting nervous
  • In January 2017, Deutsche settled for $7.2 billion. It would pay $3.1 billion in civil penalties (under FIRREA) while also covering $4.1 billion in “relief” to various affected parties (such as homeowners). A serious forfeit, but nowhere near as much as had been feared. 
  • The stock has lost almost 90% of its value over the last eleven years not because of civil fines, money market reform, or Dodd-Frank regulation (or whatever anyone in the mainstream might dream up next to ‘explain’ why it can’t be a broken money system), rather the global system irreparably changed on August 9, 2007.


  • Adding insult to ruinous injury, just hours after Deutsche Bank stock crashed to all time lows after it was revealed that it had been put on the Fed’s “secret” probation list one year ago, overnight S&P downgraded Deutsche Bank’s credit rating by one notch to BBB+ from A-, just three away from junk,


  • At the end of January, just as the S&P hit all time high, Bank of America caused a stir when it announced that one of its proprietary “guaranteed bear market” indicators created by the Bank of America quants was just triggered.
  • this indicator   predicted not only the size of the upcoming drop (-12% on average) but also the timing (over the coming three months). Also notable: its uncanny accuracy: it was correct on 11 out of 11 previous occasions after it was triggered.
  • This is what BofA said then:

BofAML Bull & Bear indicator surges to 7.9, highest since last sell signal >8 triggered Mar’13;

BofAML Bull & Bear indicator has given 11 sell signals since 2002; hit ratio = 11/11; average equity peak-to-trough drop following 3 months = 12% (backtested, Table 1); note the last Bull & Bear indicator flashed was a buy signal of 0 on Feb 11th 2016

  • So fast-forward to today, when the “bear market” is that much closer according to the strangely prophetic Bank of America, which reports that as of this month, another 2 indicators had been triggered, meaning that no less than 13 of 19 bear market signposts are now flashing red.
  •   we are more than two-third of the way to the next crash/recession/depression 



Mueller Team Has Spent More Than $7.7 Million On Russia Probe In A Year

  • The office of Special Counsel Robert Mueller spent more than $4.5 million on the Russia investigation from October 2017 to March 2018, bringing the total spending to more than $7.7 million.
  • The entire Justice Department incurred almost another $5.4 million for supporting the Russia investigation in the latest report, spending a total of almost $10 million on the Russia investigation From October 1, 2017 to March 31, 2018. The Special Counsel’s Office expense report states the DOJ’s spending amount “would have incurred for the investigations irrespective of the existence of the SCO.”
  • The Special Counsel’s Office has spent more than $7.7 million since May 2017, and the DOJ has spent around $17 million on the Russia investigation.


  • Federal investigators from the D.C. U.S. Attorney’s office recently interviewed former FBI director James Comey as part of an ongoing probe into whether former FBI #2 Andrew McCabe broke the law when he lied to federal agents, 

  •  What makes the interview particularly interesting is that Comey and McCabe have given conflicting reports over the events leading up to McCabe’s firing, with Comey calling his former deputy a liar in an April appearance on The View.
  • Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz issued a criminal referral for McCabe following a months-long probe which found that the former acting FBI Director leaked a self-serving story to the press and then lied about it under oath. McCabe was fired on March 16 after Horowitz found that hehad made an unauthorized disclosure to the news media and lacked candor – including under oath – on multiple occasions.
  • Specifically, McCabe was fired for lying about authorizing an F.B.I. spokesman and attorney to tell Devlin Barrett of the Wall St. Journal – just days before the 2016 election, that the FBI had not put the brakes on a separate investigation into the Clinton Foundation, at a time in which McCabe was coming under fire for his wife taking a $467,500 campaign contribution from Clinton proxy pal, Terry McAuliffe. 
  • So McCabe was found to have leaked information to the WSJ in order to combat rumors that Clinton had indirectly bribed him to back off the Clinton Foundation investigation, and then lied about it four times to the DOJ and FBI, including twice under oath.
  • Whatever Comey told federal investigators, we suspect it eventually boiled down to “McCabe didn’t tell me,” squarely placing responsibility for the leaks – and the lies, on McCabe’s shoulders.


FBI Releases Docs Showing Hillary’s State Department Shopped Benghazi Story to Compliant WSJ Reporter One Week After Attack

  • The FBI released new documents Friday showing Hillary’s State Department pitched a Benghazi story to a Wall Street Journal reporter who enthusiastically complied.
  • Hillary Clinton’s State Department gave stand down orders to Special Ops forces ready to go in and help Americans who were surrounded by hundreds of Islamic insurgents in Benghazi, Libya on September 11-12th, 2012.
  • We lost FOUR Americans that night. Tyrone Woods, Sean Smith, Ambassador Christopher Stevens and Glen Doherty. Never forget.

  •  , the Obama administration lied about the Benghazi attack by blaming it on a YouTube video.
  • Hillary Clinton also lied straight to the parents of the victims of Benghazi. The parents of two of the Americans killed sued Hillary in federal court claiming she is liable for their deaths,
  • Hillary’s State Department shopped a Benghazi story to then-Wall Street Journal reporter, Adam Entous about a week after the horrific terrorist attack which claimed the lives of four Americans.
  • Screenshot of email exchange between Hillary’s State Dept and Adam Entous via FBI’s vault:


Geopolitical/Police State

Google lied about size of Pentagon AI contract, tried to hide project – leaked emails

  • Google misled the public about the size of the company’s contract to develop AI for the Pentagon, and its executives chose against publicizing its participation in the project, leaked emails obtained by The Intercept show.
  • Diane Greene, the chief executive of the company’s cloud business unit, recently told employees that revenue from Project Maven – a Pentagon program under development which aims to use artificial intelligence to help drones identify human ground targets without the assistance of human operators – was “only” for $9 million. But internal company emails from September 2017 obtained by The Intercept suggest otherwise.
  • One message, said to be from Aileen Black, a member of Google’s defense sales team, noted that the deal would rake in $15 million over the next 18 months. The email also said that the budget for the program was expected to eventually expand to $250 million.
  • The emails also show that Google executives were deeply concerned about a potential public backlash if the company’s participation in the Pentagon program became widely known.


Google Abandons Pentagon’s AI-Drone ‘Project Maven’ After Employee Revolt

  • Just two weeks after around a dozen Google employees quit and close to 4,000 signed a petition over the company’s involvement in a controversial military pilot program known as “Project Maven”



North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sends letter to Trump

  • senior North Korean official   handed over a letter from the country’s leader Kim Jong Un to U.S. President Donald Trump in a rare visit to the White House on Friday as the two sides try to put a derailed summit meeting back on track.
  • Trump hopes to meet Kim in Singapore on June 12 and pressure him to give up his nuclear weapons, although he conceded on Thursday that might require more rounds of direct negotiations.
  • “I’d like to see it done in one meeting,” Trump told Reuters. “But often times that’s not the way deals work. There’s a very good chance that it won’t be done in one meeting or two meetings or three meetings. But it’ll get done at some point.”
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US Will ‘Unquestionably Veto’ UN Draft on Protecting Palestinians

  • US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley   vetoed” a UN draft resolution calling for an international mission to protect Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip.


Satellite images show US expanded Tanf base as battle for Syria’s south looms

  • The US military has reportedly expanded its base in Tanf area as the Syrian government forces amass more troops for final battle in Daraa province.
  • Recently-published satellite images show several buildings and barricades have been added to the base during the past three months, as well as heavy military equipment including at least 30 technical vehicles.
  • According to latest reports, the US military shall hand over the Tanf base to the Syrian forces under the Daraa offensive expected to be launched an moment, in exchange, Russian guarantees that no attacks will be waged by the Syrian Army against the US-backed forces in eastern Syria.
Zen Adra | AMN
Zen Adra | AMN

Russian naval ships leave Syrian waters for Black Sea

  • The frigate Admiral Grigorovich and the guard ship Pytlivy have completed their missions as part of Russia’s Mediterranean permanent taskforce and have set off for Sevastopol, Black Sea Fleet spokesman Captain 1st Rank Vyacheslav Trukhachyov said on Thursday.
  • “Currently, the warships are passing through the Straits of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus, heading for the Black Sea,” the spokesman said.
  • The warships’ crews earlier held various drills to practice a battle solely and as part of a naval group, performing artillery fire against practice surface and air targets, and also sharpened the skills of anti-submarine warfare.
  • “Currently, the Mediterranean taskforce comprises about 15 warships and support vessels,” Trukhachyov said.