European banking system is getting worse and the central bankers are preparing for a collapse of the banking system. Core Logic is reporting the housing is overvalued, it is exactly what we saw in the 2008 crisis. Manufacturing last another 4000 jobs. Greenspan is worrying that its not the stock market bubble everyone should be worried about it is the bond bubble. Trump is playing the game, the corporate media and Fed has been pushing the idea that the market is the indicator for the economy and if it goes higher it means everything is going well. He will use this to his advantage when the system crashes. The corporate media is now blaming Trump for the rise of Obamacare premiums, this is completely false because the premiums have been rising the last couple of years. Ben Rhodes is now a person of interest in regard to unmasking. Trump signs the Russian sanctions pushing Russia and Europe closer together. US launches an ICBM. China officially opens their military base in Djibouti . Trump and Tillerson are now playing good cop bad cop. Tillerson is looking to have diplomatic relations with NK, Iran and Russia. Syrian forces are pushing the paid mercenaries out of Syria, more terrorists have switched to the government side.
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Current News – 08.02.2017
- The Institutional Risk Analyst takes a look a the recent reports out of the EU regarding a proposal to “freeze” the retail accounts of failing European banks. Investors who think that Europe is close to adopting an effective approach to dealing with failing banks may want to think again.
- Judging by the reaction to the story by investors and on social media, it appears that the EU has learned nothing about managing public confidence when it comes to the banking sector.
- While some Wall Street analysts are encouraging investors to jump into EU bank stocks, the fact is that there remains nearly €1 trillion in bad loans within the European banking system.
- We see this latest piece of news out of Europe as further evidence that there is still no political consensus about how to deal with troubled banks. As we learned last year, Merkel could not even make positive public comments about DB for fear of committing political suicide.
- The more recent bank resolutions in Spain and Italy were made to look like touch measures in public terms, even as the Rome government quietly subsidized the senior creditors of two failed banks in the Veneto.
- the EU pretends to play tough on bank rules while bailing out the senior creditors:
- Home prices in four of the nation’s largest cities reportedly are now considered overvalued.
- Home prices in Denver, Houston, Miami and the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area now exceed sustainable levels, according to CoreLogic.
- To determine if a market is overvalued, CoreLogic compares current prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local economic fundamentals like disposable income
- “Home prices are marching ever higher, up almost 50 percent since the trough in March 2011. With no end to the escalation in sight, affordability is rapidly deteriorating nationally and especially in some key markets such as Denver, Houston, Miami and Washington,”
- – Former Fed Chairman warns of bond bubble, stagflation
– “Moving into a … stagflation not seen since the 1970s”
– This will not be “good for asset prices”
– 10 Yr Gov bond yields fell from 15.8% in 1981 to 2.3%
– Interest rates will not stay low, will rise ‘reasonably fast’
– “Normal” interest rates in 4%-5% range
– Inflation will not stay at historically low levels
– Gold “protects savings” and is “store of value”
– Gold is the “ultimate insurance policy” says Greenspan
- Greenspan warns of Bond Bubble
- ‘We are experiencing a bubble, not in stock prices but in bond prices. This is not discounted in the marketplace.’
- But former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan is not in agreement. He is continuing his message of the last two years, that there is a bond bubble and which is more dangerous than what is going on in the stock market.
- He is not the only one, in recent months there has been a growing number of those who are concerned that real bond yields in the U.S., UK, EU and elsewhere are well below where growth and inflation rates seem to suggest they should be.
- “We’ve been in a period of stagnation since 2008 as a consequence of the sharp decline of capital investment and productivity growth… We are moving into a different phase of the economy — to a stagflation not seen since the 1970s. That is not good for asset prices.”
- Many are calling for caution when it comes to the President taking credit implying this seemingly great “win” could end up being nothing more than a “boat anchor” around his reputation should the “markets” falter, turning a once worthy accolade into the proverbial “kiss of death” signaling the scapegoating to begin in earnest.
- I would like to bring your attention to the one thing in which he is absolutely both defining, as well as being correct with
- I am still of the opinion this “framing” (if that’s what it turns out to be) is being put into the public arena for use as a foil against the Fed (along with congress) when the effects of their current policy moves begin to exert themselves when the “hopium” trade that has been incessant since the election (precisely what Trump is claiming credit for) evaporates, when it’s self-evident every piece of legislation that propelled the “hopium” trade is understood not just to be DOA, but dead and buried.
- The past 6 months rise in the “markets” has been on nothing more than a “hopium” trade of what was presumed to be a slam-dunk of Obamacare repeal, meaningful tax relief, and infrastructure spending.
- And – for this point needs to be pounded into that discussion: All in direct contrast, and opposition, to the resulting effects that would normally be taking place with the Fed. embarking on a tightening schedule, along with balance sheet reduction, into ever deteriorating data for a supposedly “data dependent” body. i.e
- Congress, along with the Fed. (in my opinion) are the ones who should be worrying if this market indeed begins to falter. Unlike the President – I don’t believe they have the argument to stand on that he has. I also believe many are unwittingly claiming credit for “stopping” things which have far more potential to blow-up in their own faces than they are calculating.
- And the most explosive tool at the President’s disposal is one they believe is unassailable. e.g., Their own words.
- As always – we shall see. Or, as the “tweets” tell us.
- Content creators on YouTube who follow all of the site’s rules may still face censorship by the platform, under new plans announced by Google.
- According to a post on YouTube’s official blog, videos will now be subject to the rule of the mob. If enough users flag a video as “hate speech” or “violent extremism,” YouTube may impose restrictions on the content even if it breaks none of the platform’s rules.
We’ll soon be applying tougher treatment to videos that aren’t illegal but have been flagged by users as potential violations of our policies on hate speech and violent extremism. If we find that these videos don’t violate our policies but contain controversial religious or supremacist content, they will be placed in a limited state. The videos will remain on YouTube behind an interstitial, won’t be recommended, won’t be monetized, and won’t have key features including comments, suggested videos, and likes.
- YouTube has also rolled out a “trusted flagger” program, in which 15 “expert NGOs and institutions” to help them identify hate speech and extremism on their platform.
- Among these organizations are the No Hate Speech Movement, a left-wing project pushed by the Council of Europe, as well as the Anti-Defamation League,
- YouTube is also planning to artificially alter its search results so that searches for “sensitive” topics on YouTube no longer return the most popular videos, but a “playlist of curated YouTube videos that directly confront and debunk violent extremist messages.”
- The platform also plans to artificially promote videos created via its “Creators for Change” program, which, in YouTube’s words, features creators who are “using their voices and creativity to speak out against hate speech, xenophobia and extremism.”
We’ve started rolling out features from Jigsaw’s Redirect Method to YouTube. When people search for sensitive keywords on YouTube, they will be redirected towards a playlist of curated YouTube videos that directly confront and debunk violent extremist messages. We also continue to amplify YouTube voices speaking out against hate and radicalization through our YouTube Creators for Change program. Just last week, the U.K. chapter of Creators for Change, Internet Citizens, hosted a two-day workshop for 13-18 year-olds to help them find a positive sense of belonging online and learn skills on how to participate safely and responsibly on the internet.
- Obamacare premiums have been exploding higher ever since the controversial legislation took over health insurance markets. And while many would say that another year of premium increases is a logical extrapolation of a predictable, multi-year trend resulting from a failed policy, others would like for you to believe that the massive (yet consistent) premium increases being proposed for the 2018 plan year are unique because they’re Trump’s fault.
- Major health insurers in some states are seeking increases as high as 30% or more for premiums on 2018 Affordable Care Act plans,
- Of course, as we’ve noted multiple times over the past couple of years, Obamacare premium increases are hardly a new phenomenon. In fact, data from the Department of Health and Human Services recently revealed that premiums across the country soared an average of 113% over the past 4 years, or nearly 30% per year. Ironically, that 30% is the same hike that many insurers are seeking for 2018…some folks would call that a trend.
- The noose is tightening…
- Ben Rhodes, former aide to President Obama, is a “person of interest” in the House Intel Committee’s unmasking investigation, according to Sara Carter of Circa News.
- If the unmasking rumors are true, Rhodes – a former deputy national security advisor under Obama, is in deep shit – joining a list of Obama admin officials included in the House Intel Committee probe, along with former CIA director John Brennan, Susan Rice, and former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power.
- Faced with a Congressional super-majority which threatened to override a would-be veto, Donald Trump has signedthe sanctions bill
- Trump signed the bill for the sake of what he called “national unity” while conceding the bill was “flawed”.
- Trump went on to say that the legislation “included a number of clearly unconstitutional provisions” which “encroaches on the executive branch’s authority to negotiate”, something he blamed on the hasty manner in which the bill was cobbled together.
- Trump continued,
“Yet despite its problems, I am signing this bill for the sake of national unity,” Trump said. “It represents the will of the American people to see Russia take steps to improve relations with the United States. We hope there will be cooperation between our two countries on major global issues so that these sanctions will no longer be necessary”.
- Donald Trump also made a point made recently in The Duran, that the legislation will if anything, bring Russia, Iran and North Korea closer together as mutual victims of the new sanctions.
- Earlier, Rex Tillerson stated that both he and Donald Trump were unhappy about the bill but would try their utmost to work around it and pursue their version of improved relations with Moscow.
- TRUMP IS SAID TO SIGN RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL, OFFICIAL SAYS
- WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS TRUMP SIGNED SANCTIONS LEGISLATION
the president indicates he intends for his administration to carry out the law in a way consistent with his constitutional authority, language that leaves open some room for interpretation of how the law is executed.
Trump’s concerns cover four areas: encroachment on executive authority, unintentional harm to U.S. companies and business, as well as U.S. international partners, and limits on the flexibility of the administration to act in concert with allies in dealing with Russia.
- US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson says President Donald Trump is not happy with the new package of Congressional sanctions against Russia, particularly because they may hamper attempts improving ties between the two countries.
- However, there are things Trump could do, and since defusing the threat that Russia sees is essential to the avoidance of war, it is imperative that Trump do everything he can to prevent the military/security complex and its servants in Congress and the media from locking America into deadly conflict with Russia.
- Trump could also tell Congress that their law is unconstitutional and that he won’t sign or veto the bill, and if Congress persists he will take it to the Supreme Court.
- As I predicted would be the case, Trump had no idea how to appoint a government that would be on his side, and obviously failed completely. He is continually contradicted by his UN ambassador, his Seretary of State, his National Security Advisor, his Secretary of Defense. Trump is alone in his government.
- Relations between the US and Russia are “under considerable stress” but Washington and Moscow are trying to work together to fight ISIS and create conditions for peace in Syria, said US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
- While Nikki Haley, the US Ambassador to the UN has disparaged the institution she is an ambassador to, saying that discussions on North Korea are ‘pointless’, Rex Tillerson offered a totally different perspective, one that is more rational and safer given that Haley’s remarks suggest military action is on the table. Tillerson’s remarks by contrast, unambiguously rule out military action.
Tillerson said the following in respect of North Korea,
“We do not seek regime change, we do not seek a collapse of the regime, we do not seek an accelerated reunification of the peninsula, we do not seek an excuse to send our military north of the 38th Parallel.
We are not your enemy….but you are presenting an unacceptable threat to us … we hope that at some point (North Korea) will begin to understand that and we would like to sit and have a dialogue with them”.
- Both China and Russia have set out their terms for solving the issues in North Korea clearly. The points Russia and China have made at the United Nations among other places include
- –a request that the US, Japan and South Korea cease military exercises in and around the Korean peninsula
- –a request that the US cease future deliveries of the THAAD missile systems to South Korea
- –a request that North Korea cease its missile tests
- –a call for dialogue between all parties, including Pyongyang to reach a deal on de-escalation on the Korean peninsula
- –a rejection of crippling sanctions on North Korea which would cause deprivation among civilians
- Tillerson said that the US has the option to “tear it up and walk away,” or try to just hold Iran accountable to the terms. President Trump has been very public since the campaign about wanting to tear up the deal, and recent reports have suggested it was only pressure from Tillerson and Mattis that kept Trump admitting Iran had complied with the deal earlier this month.
- the U.S. military successfully test-launched an unarmed Intercontinental Ballistic Missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, about 130 miles northwest of Los Angeles, and just days after North Korea’s second test of an ICBM. An Air Force statement said that the test was not a response to recent North Korean actions, but shows that America’s nuclear enterprise is “safe, secure, effective and ready to be able to deter, detect and defend against attacks on the United States and its allies.”
- The ICBM was equipped with a test reentry vehicle – just like the previous three launches in 2017 – which officials said showed it traveled about 4,200 miles to the Marshall Islands.
- China officially opened its first overseas naval base in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa.
- Djibouti is a tiny state located on the northwestern edge of the Indian Ocean, near the Bab al-Mandab Strait between the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.
- The Chinese military base will be used to resupply ships of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) taking part in peacekeeping and humanitarian missions in the region.
- Beijing describes the base as a logistic facility, but the base could be easily considered the first Chinese overseas naval base.
- Over 2,000 Chinese military servicemen will be reportedly deployed at the base.
- The four countries leading the boycott against Qatar are going back to their list of 13 demands for Doha to meet before talks can start, essentially reverting the Arab Gulf spat back to square one.
- This past Sunday, however, the four countries said that apart from the six principles, they insisted on Qatar meeting those 13 demands, reverting to their original conditions, which analysts had thought were too steep for Qatar to meet.
- The self-proclaimed Islamic State keeps losing more territories to the Syrian Army in the eastern countryside of Raqqa as the government troops march on the eastern city of Deir Ezzor.
- Today, the SAA’s elite tiger forces have recaptured an ISIS enclave along the western bank of the Euphrates
- Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham and their allies from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) broke the ceasefire agreement in Alepp
- Free Syrian Army (FSA) mercenaries based in Syria’s southwestern desert region have commenced a major offensive against pro-government forces.
- Another group have defected to Syrian government forces from the US-controlled at-Tanf garrison in southeastern Syria, near the border with Iraq. This was the second group of Jaysh Maghawir al-Thawra fighters that defected to the Syrian army in less than a month.