The Manhattan bubble is popping, foreign investment is being redirected, the real estate crisis has begun and it will spread. Global debt has hit an all time high and it is getting worse. The rate at which debt is rising is of great concern because there will be a time when it won’t be able to be paid back. The Fed has already decided to change the rules of the game, they are now removing data and manipulating data. Just a couple days ago the Fed said the yield curve is not accurate and flawed and now the Fed has replaced the yield curve with their new version which is based on what they think the future will bring. The collapse has been exposed, change and hide data to cover their tracks. Lisa Page will not testify and she is using the excuse that she did not received the documents but this is not true. The trial for Flynn has been postponed again. A dead body has been found in the garbage shoot of Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner. Some government officials are pushing new laws to go after Antifa. DHS refuses to reunite families since adults are not the children’s parents. NATO bends to Trump and Trump wants other nations to pay for their share. Turkey will receive the S-400 missile system by 2019. Assad forces widen assault in the southwest of Syria. Weapons have been retrieved from the paid mercenaries and they were US and UK made weapons. Netanyahu is meeting with Putin and one of the strategies is to have Putin sway Assad to ask Iran to leave, in return Netanyahu will have Trump remove the sanctions. This is part of the plan this will allow the US and coalition troops to leave Syria.
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Current News – 07.11.2018
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- In the second quarter, sales of large office properties in Manhattan fell 26% from the same period a year ago. It was the worst Q2 dollar volume in years:
- Last year’s Q2 sales – as weak as they’d been – were propped up by the last-hurrah-deal undertaken by a Chinese conglomerate. The $2.2-billion sale of 245 Park Avenue to HNA Group was the sixth largest transaction in Manhattan ever. HNA paid $1,282 per square foot for the tower, which was called “among the highest price-per-pound for this type of asset.” It was the last big Chinese property purchase in Manhattan.
- This year, Q1 was propped up by the $2.4-billion sale of Chelsea Market to Google. The deal accounted for over half the total transaction volume in the quarter. The price was a blistering $2,181 per square foot.
- “What brought the sales volume down in Q2 was the absence of the high-profile, billion-dollar office deals
- China wanted their investors to redirect their investing to the Belt And Road
- Every quarter the Institute of International Finance publishes a new number of the total amount of global debt outstanding, and every quarter the result is the same: a new record high
- Today was no exception: according to the IIF’s latest Global Debt Monitor, the amount of debt held in the world rose by the biggest amount in two years during the first quarter of 2018, when it grew by $8 trillion to hit a new all time high of $247 trillion, up from $238 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2017 and up from by $30 trillion from the end of 2016.
In other words, there is now a quarter quadrillion dollars in global debt, and it represents 318% of global GDP. More concerning is that this was the first time since Q3 2016 that global debt to GDP increased, suggesting that the marginal utility of debt is once again below 1.
This is how the debt is broken down as of Q1 2018 and compared to Q1 2013:
- Non-financial corporate debt: $74 trillion, up from $58 trillion in 5 years
- Government debt: $67 trillion, up from $56 trillion
- Financial debt: $61 trillion, up from $56 trillion
- Household debt: $47 trillion, up from $40 trillion
Some more details from the report,
- The government debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 101 percent in the U.S.
- What was surprising about the report – certainly not the latest all time high debt numbers, those are now standard – is that the IIF voiced a strongly negative opinion of recent developments in the debt arena.
- “The pace is indeed a cause for concern,” warned IIF’s Managing Director Hung Tran during a call with reporters. “The problem with the pace and speed is if you borrow or if you lend very quickly, the quality of the credit tends to suffer.” It also means more governments, businesses and individuals have been borrowing that could have trouble paying the money back, or merely paying interest on it as rates rise.
- “The quality of creditworthiness has declined sharply,” Tran added ominously, echoing what Moody’s said at the end of May.
- The IIF did not stop there and cautioned that with global growth losing steam and becoming increasingly divergent, and with U.S. rates rising, worries about credit risk are starting to creep back to the forefront, including in many developed economies, such as the United States and Western Europe.
- “Government debt is higher than it was prior to the crisis and corporate debt as well.
- The New Curve
- What if your local weatherman forecasted weather not based on atmospheric conditions and other scientific data but instead on his own forecast. “I dreamt it will rain in three days, therefore my forecast is for rain in three days.” His prediction method, if uncovered, would probably lead him to seek a new career.
- The weatherman’s forecast is a good way to describe the new yield curve the Fed has recently publicized. This curve is calculated by comparing the current three-month rate for Treasuries versus what that rate is expected to be six quarters from now. The forward rate is calculated using the current rate and the interpolated rate on 1.50- and 1.75-year Treasury notes. in laymen’s terms the curve is simply a forecast of what the market thinks the Fed will do.
- The traditional 2s-10s curve spread is falling at a decent pace and has been in decline for the better part of the last five years. Conversely, the new curve has been in a slight uptrend over the same period. Clearly, the curves are sending different messages.
- The Fed has much more control over the shape of the new curve versus the traditional curve.
Lisa Page plans to blatantly defy a congressional subpoena by refusing to appear for her deposition. She is a key witness, and it is critical that she come before @HouseJudiciary to answer questions as part of our investigation. It appears she has something to hide.
— Bob Goodlatte (@RepGoodlatte) July 11, 2018
- Goodlatte said it appears “key witness” Lisa Page has something to hide and Congress will use all tools at their disposal to obtain her testimony.
- OP Congressional investigators are furious after former FBI attorney Lisa Page issued a statement through her attorney notifying a jount House panel that she would ignore a subpoena to appear on Wednesday because she wasn’t allowed access to documents by the FBI.Page’s attorney, Amy Jeffress, claimed that “Lisa and I went to the FBI today to review the materials that were previously produced to Congress related to her propsed interview, but after waiting for more than three hours, we were not provided with any documents.”
— Paula Reid (@PaulaReidCBS) July 11, 2018
“The Committees have not honored this request,” Jeffress said. “As a result, Lisa is not going to appear for an interview at this time.”
On Wednesday morning, however, Freedom Caucus chairman Mark Meadows tweeeted that Page and her attorneys did review the requested documents at the FBI on Tuesday, and that “Her failure to appear before Congress this morning had little to do with ‘preparation’–and everything to do with avoiding accountability.”
- On Tuesday, a federal judge again delayed the sentencing of Trump’s former NatSec Advisor, General Mike Flynn.
Following a spate of violent attacks by masked members of Antifa, four GOP members of Congress are taking matters into their own hands.
A measure introduced last month in the House would punish anyone wearing a mask who “injures, oppresses, threatens or intimidates” a person “in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege” with a fine and up to 15 years in prison.
Introduced to the House Judiciary Committee by Rep. Dan Donovan (R-NY) and co-sponsored by Peter King (R-NY), Ted Budd (R-NC) and Paul Gosar (R-AZ). H.R. 6054, the “Unmasking Antifa Act of 2018” states:
Whoever, whether or not acting under color of law, while in disguise, including while wearing a mask, injures, oppresses, threatens, or intimidates any person in any State, Territory, Commonwealth, Possession, or District in the free exercise or enjoyment of any right or privilege secured to him by the Constitution or laws of the United States, or because of his having so exercised the same, shall be fined under this title, imprisoned not more than 15 years, or both.
The bill also includes 2 years of jail time for “Destroying buildings or property” while wearing a mask or disguise.
- The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) held a joint call Tuesday to announce their efforts to comply with a June 26 federal court ruling mandating children under five years old in HHS custody be “reunited” with parents if they were separated at the border.
- U.S. District Judge Dana Sabraw, in response to an American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) lawsuit, set a July 10 deadline to reunite the families and refused to provide additional time for the government to use DNA testing to determine if the people in question are even the 102 identified children’s parents.
- Nevertheless, the government, in its Tuesday “Joint Status Report” notes that in at least 14 of the 102 children’s cases, they will not be “reuniting” them with parents because the adults in question are either not actually their parents, have been convicted of serious crimes, including rape and murder, or have been credibly accused of child abuse. The government will not place children with adults without completing these checks.
- HHS Chief of Staff Chris Meekins, went on to explain that three “parents” admitted they were not actually related to the children with whom they were ordered to be “reunited” when agents brought out DNA swabs to test parentage. Two others were proven to not be the parents when DNA tests were completed. Eight other purported parents will not be “reunited” with children due to failed criminal background checks that turned up serious convictions or child abuse. “Our due diligence is protecting children,” Meekins said.
- NATO’s secretary general agreed on Wednesday that President Trump’s call for other members to boost their defense spending under the military alliance is having an effect, and promised that other NATO members would soon be chipping in more.
- Trump was in Belgium Wednesday to keep up his complaint that other NATO members are “not paying what they should,” and said it’s an “unfair burden” to the U.S.