Some major changes on how inflation is calculated on autos, plus GM does not report it’s deliveries anymore so all the numbers that come in are estimates. Home buyers are now waiting to see if they buy a home, we saw this happen prior to the 2008 recession. Wholesale slumps in June. Rothschild just announced the plan to take down the economy and they already decided where to place the blame. Giuliani says that Mueller’s team is done for. Mattis says the plan in Afghanistan is going smoothly and the talks with the Taliban are working. NK comes out with a shocking revelation that the MSM and some inside officials are trying to derail the peace between the US and NK. Trump wants to talk to Iran but certain individuals within the administration are trying to stop the talks. Syrian army drops leaflets over Idlib, most likely they are preparing for a major offensive. The refugees are flowing back into Syria. The Deep state is trying to censor Q, they are talking down the sites and doing whatever they possibly can to stop the truth movement, not just with Q but with other sites.
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Current News – 08.09.2018
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- the Consumer Price Index for used cars and trucks. It shows that there has been 0% inflation since 1994 in used cars and trucks, despite actual prices having soared. So, yes, the CPI for used vehicles in June, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, fell 0.7% from June a year ago and is where it had been in April 1994
- This absurdity of 0% inflation since 1994 is caused largely by the BLS’s relentless and passionate application “hedonic quality adjustments,” which adjust prices for the costs of a model’s new equipment and quality improvements, such as, to quote: reliability, durability, safety, fuel economy, maneuverability, speed, acceleration, deceleration, carrying capacity, and comfort or convenience.
- For a more sobering sense of reality, let’s head to the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. Manheim is the largest auto auction company in North America. Annually, about 8 million used vehicles – rental cars, lease turn-ins, repos, etc. – are sold at its physical and online venues. This index, based on these wholesale prices, is adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality.
- On this basis, used vehicle prices jumped 5.1% in July from a year ago. The index, at 136.9, hit “the highest level ever for the series,” Manheim said. And look at that spike:
- The index is up 16.4% from January 2010. Over the same period, the CPI for used cars and trucks, pictured at the top, fell 4.3%.
- The index stayed in the same range between 2010 and April 2017, and suddenly, in May 2017, BAM. This was before the hurricanes. Then in late August and September, Hurricanes Harvey and Irma created a lot of “replacement demand” at auctions around the country. But that petered out sooner than expected, as there was less replacement demand than hoped for. And by November last year, auction prices were beginning to revert to the mean (the sharp drop in the chart above).
- That drop bottomed out in March 2018, and prices have been spiking since. The increases in April and May were ascribed to seasonality, but then came June and July.
- The industry now has to “estimate” monthly new-vehicle deliveries after GM stopped reporting its deliveries in April; GM accounts for over 17% of the new-vehicle market. And as of April, the industry has to fill that hole with estimates.
- The new-vehicle market, in terms of the number of deliveries, peaked in 2016 and declined in 2017. The earlier part of this year was slightly stronger, but now the market is losing steam again, as more and more consumers – including many subprime borrowers that are getting locked out of the new vehicle market – switch to used vehicles.
- GM, Fiat Chrysler, and Ford all got ugly in unison, in one day, something we haven’t seen since the Financial Crisis.
- . Sales of previously owned homes slumped for the third month in a row in June, and sales of new homes also fell
- housing market has stalled largely because of what he calls “buyer fatigue.” Consumers are well aware that rates are on the move, and even though year-to-date averages aren’t much higher than last year, a few basis points can make a difference for a first-time buyer or others who are already stretching in a competitive market.
- “Some folks are deciding to say, ‘I’m going to renew my lease another year, wait it out,’
- Wholesale Trade Sales were hit with a double-whammy, revised notably lower in May and dropping 0.1% MoM in June. Wholesale inventories rose a modest 0.1% MoM leaving inventories-to-sales flat on the month.
- Expectations were for a 0.2% rise in June after a 2.5% gain in May but the entire curve dropped with a 0.1% drop in June after a revised lower 2.1% gain in May…
Inventory growth slowed in June...
On a YoY basis, both sales and inventory growth slowed…
- “Global trade is under threat. Whether or not you call the current situation a trade war, certainly the first shots have been fired,” WTO Director General Roberto Azevedo wrote
- “The situation is extremely serious. Reciprocal trade restrictions cannot be the new normal. A continued escalation would risk a major economic impact… hitting the poorest hardest.”
- A negative yield curve spread where short-term interest rates are higher than long rates has been a very good early indicator of a recession ahead.
Click on chart for larger view.
The current yield curve spread (10-Year Treasury interest rate minus the 2-Year Treasury) is a positive 0.30. But the steady decline does not seem to worry the Fed. Fed members think “it is different this time.”
- Over the past three years, an unexpected voice of caution has emerged from one of the most legendary families in finance: Lord Jacob Rothschild.
- part of the RIT Capital Partners 2014 annual report commentary, Rothschild family warned that “the geopolitical situation is most dangerous since WWII.” One year later, Jacob Rothschild again warned about the outcome of “what is surely the greatest experiment in monetary policy in the history of the world”, and then again in August 2017 he cautioned that “share prices have in many cases risen to unprecedented levels at a time when economic growth is by no means assured.”
- he also made another warning which the market has so far blissfully ignored:
The period of monetary accommodation may well be coming to an end.
- Fast forward to today when in the latest half-year commentary from RIT Capital Partners, Lord Rothschild has made his latest warning to date, this time focusing on the global economic system that was established after WWII, and which he believes is now in jeopardy.
- The billionaire banker pointed to the US-China trade war and the Eurozone crisis as the key problems putting economic order at risk, and the lack of a “common approach” – a reference to the gradual unwind of globalization in the wake of President Trump – that has made “co-operation today much more difficult”:
“In 9/11 and in the 2008 financial crisis, the powers of the world worked together with a common approach. Co-operation today is proving much more difficult. This puts at risk the post-war economic and security order.”
The cycle is in its tenth positive year, the longest on record. We are now seeing some areas of weaker growth emerge; indeed the IMF has recently predicted some slowdown.
- “The reality is, the real story is not that this case isn’t going to fizzle,” said Giuliani, Trump’s lead attorney in the matter. “It’s going to blow up on them. The real question is, what we talked about before, there’s a lot more to what they did that nobody knows about yet.”
- “A lot more to the obstruction of justice, to the collusion, to the fake dossier,” Giuliani added.
- According to Giuliani, the only collusion in the 2016 election was the US intelligence community’s use of the Kremlin-linked Steele Dossier to obtain “several fraudulent FISA wires.”
- “Can it get any worse?
Did The FBI Just Serve Warrants On the Clinton Foundation? It’s Happening
According to a Little Rock radio station 102.9 KARN: The FBI was seen loading boxes onto a DOJ Boeing 757 cargo plane today in Little Rock Arkansas. This is the home of the Clinton Foundation offices. The plane was loaded full of document type boxes. There aren’t too many places in Little Rock that could fill a cargo plane full of boxes.
- It is no secret that US Attorney John Huber is investigating Uranium1 and the Clinton Foundation, and now the FBI has opened up a new investigation into the Clintons.
“There has been no evidence whatsoever that Donald Trump or the campaign was involved in any kind of collusion to fix the 2016 election. In fact the evidence is the opposite, that Hillary Clinton & the Democrats colluded with the Russians to fix the 2016 election.”
Sanctioning Russia for false link to UK poisonings ‘unacceptable & unlawful’ – Kremlin
- Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of Russian President Vladimir Putin, says the use of a Russian link to recent UK poisoning incidents to justify fresh US sanctions against the Kremlin is a violation of international law.
- Defense Secretary James Mattis insisted that the ever-worsening situation shows that the strategy is “working,” and cites increased pressure on the Taliban to join reconciliation talks as proof that the strategy is correct.
- This is clearly a dramatic step back from expectations for a military victory, but Mattis isn’t alone. Other Pentagon officials have tried to rebrand possible talks are “progress” in the war, 17 years in.
- North Korea has slammed US officials for trying to undermine the North Korea denuclearization deal behind President Trump’s back, according to the country’s official news agency, KCNA.
- Pyongyang pointed out that that in addition to taking “such practical denuclearization steps” as discontinuing its ICBM testing and dismantling nuclear facilities, they allowed the repatriation of US-POW/MIA remains.
- “We hoped that these goodwill measures would contribute to breaking down the high barrier of mistrust existing between the DPRK and the U.S. and to establishing mutual trust,” reads the statement, “However, the U.S. responded to our expectation by inciting international sanctions and pressure against the DPRK.”
The U.S. is attempting to invent a pretext for increased sanctions against the DPRK by mobilizing all their servile mouthpieces and intelligence institutions to fabricate all kinds of falsehoods on our nuclear issue. They made public the “North Korea Sanctions and Enforcement Actions Advisory” and additional sanctions, and called for collaboration in forcing sanctions and pressure upon us even at the international meetings. –KCNA
And all of this is being done despite President Trump’s intention to negotiate in good faith, reads the statement.
Now the issue in question is that, going against the intention of president Trump to advance the DPRK-U.S. relations, who is expressing gratitude to our goodwill measures for implementing the DPRK-U.S. joint statement, some high-level officials within the U.S. administration are making baseless allegations against us and making desperate attempts at intensifying the international sanctions and pressure. –KCNA
- “As long as the U.S. denies even the basic decorum for its dialogue partner and clings to the outdated acting script which the previous administrations have all tried and failed, one cannot expect any progress in the implementation of the DPRK-U.S. joint statement including the denuclearization.“
- In other words, despite Trump’s intentions – members of his administration are undermining the historic progress made in US-North Korea relations.
- Last week, President Trump offered talks with Iran “without preconditions.” This was a surprising move. Less surprising was Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, just hours later, imposing multiple preconditions on any talks.
- Was this by design though? yes
- Yet Iran’s position on talks isn’t so straightforward either. President Hassan Rouhani likewise suggested on Tuesday that he was open to talks “without precondition,” though this was hastily amended to say that Iran cannot negotiate while under the shadow of economic sanctions.
- On August 9, helicopters of the Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) dropped thousands of leaflets over the eastern Idlib countryside, in which the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) called on the civilians there to cooperate with it and to join the reconciliation process, according to the Syrian news outlet Enab Baladi.
“Your cooperation with the Syrian Arab Army saves you from the control of militants and protects your lives and the lives of your families,” one of the leaflets reads.
- Such leaflets are usually dropped by SyAAF as a warning ahead of military operations. However, the leaflets which were dropped over the governorate of Idlib may be a part of the ongoing information campaign against Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
- As the Syrian Army moves closer to regaining control over the last remaining militant-occupied areas, a growing number of refugees are returning to begin rebuilding their lives. RT asked some of them why they are coming home.Between January and October of last year, 700,000 Syrians returned home from abroad, according to UN data.One man who’s already moved back to Aleppo told RT that normality was returning to the city as infrastructure and utilities were being repaired after more than seven years of civil war.“We opened a shop here,” he said, upon his family’s return to the city. “Thank God the electricity is back and life went back to normal again.”Another man making the trip from Lebanon by bus said they’re thinking of moving back because it’s become safer.“As for why I am going back… There is no place like home.
Qntmpkts – the site’s maintainer – has verified that Github has indeed removed his site. This follows hot on the heels of Microsoft’s acquisition of Github two months ago for 7.5 billion dollars.
There are, of course, backups for the site. Namely:
https://qanon.app/ – now under attack for abuse
And the similar (but unrelated) https://qmap.pub/
That said… the source code for the site is completely open source…
Which means anyone can download it…
Literally anyone can run the code on their own domain…