Moody’s warns that the private label credit cards are going to be in trouble as more and more retail stores close. Q1 GDP was revised to an incredible 1.4. What made GDP surge, the spending on recreational vehicles. Banks begin to buy back there own stocks, this is not going to help the economy. The Treasury will run out of money by mid-October. Fed Ballard says the Fed has lost control of the market. Traders are worried about what Yellen says. The central banks are working with each to crash the system. CNN tries to push their agenda on immigration but gets shot down by Homan. Paris is building a wall around the Eiffel tower. Duerte told his soldiers to take back the country by using every and all means. ISIS revenue down, land is shrinking to nothing, the IS is basically eradicated. US retreats from Al-Tanf and now is in the middle of nowhere. Putin says the foreign agents are trying to have regime change in his country. Trump is going to meet with Putin and it seems there might be some type of event to stop this from happening. Indicators are pointing to something happening starting Friday and running through next week.
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Current News – 06.29.2017
- Credit Suisse which suggested that nearly 9,000 retail locations could permanently close their doors in 2017, the most since at least 2000.
- Moody’s points out today, one such space that will be hit particularly hard is the “private-label” credit card issuers with just 5 companies accounting for nearly 80% of all credit balances outstanding.
“As retailers close stores in an effort to improve profitability over the coming years, the trend will put upward pressure on private label charge-offs,
- Meanwhile, the hardest hit names will likely be Synchrony and Alliance Data as they rely almost entirely on private-label credit cards.
- Meanwhile, it seems that both Alliance Data…
- …and Synchrony are already starting to show some signs of stress.
- Moments ago the BEA released its third estimate of GDP, according to which Q1 GDP rose by 1.4% in the quarter, above the second estimate of 1.2%, and double the initial estimate of 0.7%. It was also above the consensus estimate of 1.2%, primarily as a result of a jump in personal consumption, which contributed 0.75% to the bottom line, well above the 0.44% estimated last quarter.
- corporate profits decreased 2.3 percent at a quarterly rate in the first quarter of 2017
- Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased 1.0 percent after decreasing 4.9 percent.
- We zoom in on the personal consumption print, which has seen an uptick of 0.5% to 1.1%.”
- Here traditionally we expect healthcare (i.e., the Obamacare tax) to provide the bulk of the upside, Additionally, we found that in the quarter American spending actually declined on such staples as housing and utilities, clothing and footwear, gasoline and, perhaps the biggest surprise, motor vehicles and parts,
- So what jumped? Well, as was the case in the first GDP estimate, for some inexplicable reason, in the first quarter American consumer were scrambling to buy… recreational vehicles!?
- Incidentally, this won’t be the first time Americans splurged on RVs. The last time they did this? Exactly one year ago.
Some tiny house manufacturers have deliberately got themselves classified as RV manufacturers, so that buyers can secure RV loans to help them get the money together to buy a tiny house. One company doing this is Tumbleweed Tiny Houses, who will be reclassifying its tiny houses as trailers in February.
- the Federal Reserve announced the second leg of its 2017 stress tests for the nation’s most systemic financial institutions. Known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the Fed said it “did not object to the capital plans of all 34 bank holding companies” although Capital One Financial will be required to “submit a new capital plan within six months that addresses identified weaknesses in its capital planning process.”
- three of the biggest Wall Street banks announced they were earmarking about $47 billion to gorging on their own share buybacks. JPMorgan Chase led the pack with a potential buyback of $19.4 billion over the next 12 months, according to Bloomberg News. Citigroup has projected potential buybacks of $15.6 billion while Bank of America said it may buy back as much as $12 billion.
- The mega banks on Wall Street are engaging in these buyback binges despite a growing chorus of critics who say the practice harms the overall economy.
- In the September 2014 issue of the Harvard Business Review, William Lazonick wrote the following:
- “Five years after the official end of the Great Recession, corporate profits are high, and the stock market is booming. Yet most Americans are not sharing in the recovery. While the top 0.1% of income recipients—which include most of the highest-ranking corporate executives—reap almost all the income gains, good jobs keep disappearing, and new employment opportunities tend to be insecure and underpaid. Corporate profitability is not translating into widespread economic prosperity.
- “The allocation of corporate profits to stock buybacks deserves much of the blame. Consider the 449 companies in the S&P 500 index that were publicly listed from 2003 through 2012. During that period those companies used 54% of their earnings—a total of $2.4 trillion—to buy back their own stock, almost all through purchases on the open market. Dividends absorbed an additional 37% of their earnings. That left very little for investments in productive capabilities or higher incomes for employees.”
- There is one more serious problem with Wall Street banks buying back their own shares. For reasons no Federal regulator has yet to explain, the banks are allowed to operate their own quasi stock exchanges known as Dark Pools and trade in their own and other Wall Street bank stocks – a potential means of manipulating the market if ever there was one.
- according to the latest CBO calculations, the Treasury will “most likely” run out of cash in early to mid-October, CBO estimates that without an increase in the debt limit, the Treasury, by using all available extraordinary measures, would most likely be able to continue borrowing and have sufficient cash to make its usual payments until early to mid-October of this year.
- Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has urged Congress to lift the debt limit before its August recess (with others calling to abolish it altogether)
- As the next chart shows, the Treasury traditionally accumulates larger cash balances ahead of debt ceiling showdowns.It is when the cash balance hits zero and the the Treasury taps all extraordinary measures without the authority to borrow more, that things can spiral out of control.
- Former FX trader and fund manager Richard Breslow is worried. Worried about investors’ level of delusion in the markets and worried that central bankers are so convinced of their own omnipotence,
- Since 2007, the world has packed on a truly staggering amount of debt. That year (2007) is now commonly referred to as a debt bubble. And at that time, global debt was $149 trillion.
- Today, 10 years later, it stands at $217 trillion.
- Put another way, the world has packed on another $68 trillion in debt since the last debt bubble. In terms of Debt to GDP, the world has risen from 276% in 2007 (an already insane amount) to 327%.
- Why does this matter?
- Because this debt was built on the back of low interest rates.
- In the last 10 years, bond yields have fallen dramatically thanks to endless Central Bank intervention.
- In the US, Treasuries hit all time lows.In Europe and Japan, sovereign bond yields actually went to ZERO or even negative as far out as 10 years.
- So we have a massive debt bubble based on interest rates remaining at or near record lows…
- Globally, Central Bankers have sent a clear message: the cost of money, AKA bond yields, is going up.
- Global central bankers are coalescing around the message that the cost of money is headed higher — and markets had better get used to it.
- Just a week after signaling near-zero interest rates were appropriate, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney suggested on Wednesday that the time is nearing for an increase. His U.S. counterpart, Janet Yellen, said her policy tightening is on track and Canada’s Stephen Poloz reiterated he may be considering a rate hike.
- So,The world is sporting a Debt to GDP ration of 327%.
- All of this debt was issued at a time when bond yields were FALLING.
- Central Bankers now want bond yields to RISE.
- Are these people TRYING to crash the system?
- During Wednesday’s White House press briefing, Tom Homan – Acting Director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Attorney John Huber were brought in to discuss two upcoming pieces of immigration legislation – only to face CNN’s anchor-socked White House correspondent, Jim Acosta.
- Focus on criminals
- Director Homan made the point that out of the 66,000 illegals arrested since Trump’s executive orders on immigration enforcement were signed, “73 percent of everyone we have arrested were criminals.” Homan also noted ICE’s emphasis on “breaking up gangs and transnational smuggling organizations”
- CNN level spin
- CNN’s Jim Acosta completely re-framed Homan’s message – accusing the Director of “making it sound as if undocumented immigrants commit more crimes than people who are just native-born Americans” – a comment prepared long before the press briefing as evidenced by Acosta rattling off some Cato Institute study to support his point.
- Homan came back
- DIRECTOR HOMAN: “I think you’re misinterpreting what I’m saying… Number one, people that enter this country illegally violate the laws of this country. You can’t want to be a part of this great nation and not respect its laws” adding that once an illegal alien has been given due process, “that final order from a federal judge needs to mean something or this whole system has no integrity.”
- Later adding: “Did I say aliens commit more crimes than U.S. citizens? I didn’t say that.”
- Homan then went on to tell Acosta that illegal immigrants should not be comfortable – stating “if you enter this country illegally, you should be concerned that someone is looking for you.”
- Mothers and Babies
- Acosta then hit Homan with a hypothetical tear jerker about separating an illegal immigrant mother from her DREAMer children – calling the Trump administration’s adherence to the law “cold and clinical.”
[I]f you look at this from a cold and clinical standpoint, what you’re saying is because the mother crossed the border illegally, committed a crime, that she should be separated from her children. What do you say to that? –Abilio James Acosta
- Homan responded: “U.S. Citizen’s families get separated every day when a parent gets arrested for a criminal charge. …when someone chooses to enter this country illegally, and they’re here illegally, and they choose to have a child that’s a U.S. Citizen – they put themselves in that position.
- If we don’t have border security. If we don’t enforce the laws that’s written in the books, then you’re never going to control the border. Why do you think we’ve got 11 – 12 million [illegal] people in this country now?“
- France is set to get a wall of their own by the end of the year.
- Unlike the American iteration, this barrier won’t be erected on the French border. It’s set to surround the Eiffel Tower to shield it from terrorist attacks.
- Last month, the Paris city council approved a $20 million bulletproof glass wall, just over 8 feet high, that will surround the iconic tower.
- Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte has once again reassured troops fighting an Islamist insurgency in Marawi CIty that he will protect them from legal action, reiterating his desire to retake the city by any means necessary
“not hesitate to engage just because there are civilians. It is the duty of the civilians to flee or seek cover.”
“And my orders to you, if he carries a gun, he is not a soldier, he is not a policeman, just kill him. That is my order, because they will kill us,” Duterte
- The Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate is no more, according to an Iraqi military spokesman, and a new report on the group’s shrinking revenue suggests he might be right.
- “Their fictitious state has fallen,” Brigadier General
- The group’s apparent collapse is backed up a study released Thursday morning that found three years after Islamic State declared its caliphate on parts of Iraq and Syria, it has lost 80 percent of its revenue and roughly two thirds of its territory.
- ,” Putin said during the televised speech in Moscow on Wednesday, without specifying which nations he was referring to. “There are operations to influence the domestic political and social processes in our country.”
- “The Kremlin is convinced the United States is laying the groundwork for regime change in Russia,
- The U.S. is giving up its hopeless position at the Syrian-Iraq border crossing near al-Tanf in south east Syria.
The U.S. plan was to move from al-Tanf north towards the Euphrates river and to thereby capture and control the whole south-east of Syria. But Syria and its allies made an unexpected move and prevented that plan. The invaders are now cut off from the Euphrates by a Syrian west-to-east line that ends at the Iraqi border. The U.S. invaders are now sitting in the mid of a piece of rather useless desert around al-Tanf where their only option is to die of boredom or to move back to Jordan from where they came.
- The U.S. military even moved a HIMARS missile launcher with 300 km reach from nearby Jordan to al-Tanf. That was a laughable stunt. It made no difference in capabilities from the earlier launcher position in Jordan just a few miles west. But someone the U.S. military believed that showing off such weapons in a doomed area would impress Syrian or Russian forces and change the facts of life. It didn’t. It was clear that the U.S. would have to move out.
- Their pushing for a U.S. occupation of east Syria and incitement of a larger conflict has for now failed.
- US special forces have been deployed into the Kurdish-held northern Syrian along the border between Syria and Turkey in recent days. The deployment was not announced by the Pentagon, but revealed by the Kurdish YPG.
- The Pentagon still hasn’t directly commented on the matter, though Central Command said that US special forces would be deployed “wherever they are needed to defeat ISIS in Syria.”
- Trump and Putin will, in fact, meet next week at the G-20 Summit in Hamburg.
National security council staff have been tasked with proposing “deliverables” for the first Trump-Putin encounter, including the return of two diplomatic compounds Russians were ordered to vacate by the Obama administration in response to Moscow’s interference in the 2016 election, the former officials said. It is not clear what Putin would be asked to give in return.
- And this brings us to US threats of aggression against Syria to allegedly avenge a chemical weapons attack that America admits has not happened, although they seem suspiciously