•  One of the most curious aspects to the predictable USMCA review, ie. dissolution, has been the incapacity of the Canadian government or trade delegation to accept the United States is going to create two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements and eliminate the trilateral USMCA.
  •  For 16 months the Canadians have refused to fathom the reality of what is going to happen this year.
  • The Canadians just cannot believe it is possible they will be forced to negotiate a free trade agreement without the cover of a multilateral construct. It has been remarkable to watch their dissonance.
  • Last week President Donald Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held a phone call. At the conclusion of the call, Sheinbaum publicly asserted the reality the Canadians just refuse to accept.
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  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney finally started to realize President Trump was likely to ignore Canada and begin direct discussions with Sheinbaum. So, Carney went to Mexico to try and get assurances from Sheinbaum that Mexico would not proceed without Canadian interests in mind.
  • Essentially, Carney wanted Sheinbaum to be on his team.  However, as diplomatically noted in the phone call with President Trump, President Sheinbaum politely rejected the Canadian partnership. 
  • There is little to no chance President Trump wants to renew a trilateral trade agreement that allows Canada to keep exploiting their market access to the U.S. without accepting reciprocity.
  • Remember, Canada’s main export is energy, and Trump has diminished that leverage through the Venezuela operation. Perhaps another ‘ah-ha’ moment for deep weed walkers.  Yes, in addition to giving China a body blow, taking control of Venezuela oil and minerals also weakens the leverage position of Mark Carney.  Can you see it now?

Source: theconservativetreehouse.com