• Recession odds are below 50%, but a Fed policy mistake could worsen them, Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.
  • If they keep rates longer than necessary, such as cutting after June, the chances of a recession rise.
  • Tuesday’s CPI data was a wake-up call for investors who have gotten carried away, he said.
  • Though economic strength has kept a US recession at bay, a downturn could still happen if the Federal Reserve’s constrictive monetary policy stretches on for longer than necessary, economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.
  • While a slowdown is guaranteed, the odds of a recession stand below 50%, he said. The economy has proven inherently strong, withstanding tough geopolitical and domestic circumstances.

Source: businessinsider.com

 

when Donald Trump became the 45th President of the United States and nationalized our globalized and stagnated economy. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) was Trump’s replacement for the disaster known as NAFTA. USMCA is projected to bring 170,000 jobs, a $70 billion gain to US GDP, and a $2.2 billion increase to US agriculture exports by 2026.

As a check on China’s monopoly and unfair trade relationship with the United States, the Phase One China trade deal was another great deal that Trump delivered to the American people. As part of the agreement, China committed to buying $200 billion in US goods and services over a two-year period, starting from January 1, 2020, until December 31, 2021.

This would have decreased the US’s trade deficit with China by 54%, making it historic. Unfortunately, due to President Joe Biden’s weakness and refusal to honor the Phase One trade deal of his predecessor, China failed to purchase the remaining 49% of what they had pledged to purchase

 

Even with all the great trade deals and stock market performances, MAGAnomics’ crowning achievement was making the United States energy independent through the opening of federal leases to oil and gas corporations, which encouraged greater drilling and fracking. Under Bush, Obama, and Biden, the average gas price was $3.30, $3.68, and $4.06 during their respective tenure. In contrast, with an average gas price of $2.81 per gallon, Trump’s presidency had the lowest gas prices of all three presidents.

Average annual gasoline prices 2001-2020 ROBERT RAPIER

 

Swiftly undoing Trump’s energy policies, Biden halted all federal oil and gas leases, including Lease 261, a 73 million-acre stretch of Gulf of Mexico water that was scheduled to be leased to oil corporations before Biden took office. Biden also promptly revoked the Keystone XL pipeline and recently blocked oil drilling on 10 million acres in Alaska, including leases Trump sold. Due to the anti-fossil fuel polices of Bidenomics, there has been a 40-year historical high rate of inflation, driving up the cost of food by 18%, gas by 52%, and energy by 38%.

Sadly, Bidenomics is a gift that keeps on giving, and illegal immigration is the worst part of it all. Biden’s open border policies and lack of action on illegal immigration will seriously harm the United States’ already fragile economy. The Mayor of New York City, Eric Adams, who is a Democrat, estimates illegal immigration will cost New Yorkers $12 billion by mid-2025 and “will destroy” the city.  

 Bidenomics will keep American wallets empty, 401ks in danger, energy prices skyrocketing, and illegal immigrates financially depressing the American economy. MAGAnomics will ensure that 401(k)s are secure, energy costs are low, trade deals are fair, and American wallets are full.