•    Things to look for: 
  • (1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).
  • And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.
  • (2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).
  • (3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.
  • (4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.
  • (5) The absence of non-seasonal products.
  • (6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
  • (7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.
  • (8) Absence of large container products
  • (9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
  • (10) Big brand shortage.
  • (11) Shortage of wet pet foods
  • (12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)
  • (13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.
  • These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain.  Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
  • At first, each retail operation will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
  • Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February 2020: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.
  • This bulk food storage is how the total U.S. consumer food supply ensures consistent availability even with weather impacts.  As a nation, we essentially stay one harvest ahead of demand by storing it and smoothing out any peak/valley shortfalls. There are a total of 175,642 commercial facilities involved in this supply chain across the country
  • The stored food supply is the originating resource for food manufacturers who process the ingredients into a variety of branded food products and distribute to your local supermarket. That bulk stored food, and the subsequent supply chain, is entirely separate from the fresh food supply chain used by restaurants, hotels, cafeterias etc.

Source: theconservativetreehouse.com

Economy is now the number one concern

The AP is reporting that 68% of Americans now say the economy overall is their number one concern.  Meanwhile the federal reserve of New York is reporting the inflation results from December are likely to be the same, if not higher, than the inflation results in November.